Impact of Madden-Julian oscillation on onset of summer monsoon over India

Bhatla, R.; Singh, M.; Pattanaik, D. R.

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1715-4

Cited by 40 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Several researchers investigated the impacts of the MJO on ISM (e.g. Pai et al, 2011;Bhatla et al, 2016), Australia (e.g. Wheeler et al, 2009), Maritime continent (e.g.…”

Section: Rainfall Indices Linked With Mjomentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of MJO in modulating rainfall characteristics observed over India in all seasons utilizing TRMM

Anandh

Vissa

Broderick

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The present study aims to understand the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the seasonal and diurnal characteristics (amplitude and phase) of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent (lat. 10°S–38°N, long. 60°–100°E). The study is conducted for the period 1998–2015 and for each Indian season. To accomplish this, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set (3B42, version 7) is examined using indices quantifying rainfall frequency percentage and rainfall octet contribution, respectively. The real‐time multivariate (RMM) index developed by Wheeler and Hendon (2004) is used to partition the MJO into active, weak and suppressed phases. The results show that during active and weak phases (suppressed), positive (negative) rainfall anomalies are observed and the frequency of rainfall events is enhanced (lessened) over the most of the geometrically distinct regions. This finding is common to all seasons but is most prominent for weak phases (restricted to RMM phases 2–5) of the MJO during the monsoon season. Results suggest that the eastward propagation of the MJO over the Indian Ocean modulates rainfall across the India and neighbouring seas and countries – irrespective of the RMM index amplitude. Most works previously published focuses on the diurnal rainfall characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon (JJAS). The present study extends current understanding by investigating diurnal variation in rainfall related to the mean, active, weak and suppressed phases of MJO for each Indian season. Possible drivers of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the oceans and continental regions were explored using recently reported observational and modelling studies. Our findings help understand rainfall processes for the Indian subcontinent and have practical application for numerical weather prediction, flood forecasting and water resource management regionally.

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“…Several researchers investigated the impacts of the MJO on ISM (e.g. Pai et al, 2011;Bhatla et al, 2016), Australia (e.g. Wheeler et al, 2009), Maritime continent (e.g.…”

Section: Rainfall Indices Linked With Mjomentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of MJO in modulating rainfall characteristics observed over India in all seasons utilizing TRMM

Anandh

Vissa

Broderick

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Sikka and Gadgil (1980) found northward progression of the maximum cloud zone to northern India of about 30 day's interval between the episodes. Bhatla et al (2016) have explained the influence of MJO on early and late onset of monsoon. Many studies have already been carried out for onset, active/break, withdrawal of monsoon (Bhatla et al, 2004(Bhatla et al, , 2015aRaju et al, 2007Raju et al, , 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An apparent relationship between Madden–Julian Oscillation and the advance of Indian summer monsoon

Singh

Bhatla

Pattanaik

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A marked seasonality in the occurrence of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events is well known. The core region of oscillation is located at low latitudes (between the equator and 15°) in the summer hemisphere. The eastward progression of MJO signal interacts with the monsoon circulation and modulates the advance period of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The analyses suggest that the mean advance period of ISM (41 days) is comparable with the life cycle of the MJO (30–60 days). The advance period of ISM has been categorised into normal, fast and slow‐advance years to decide the pace of the monsoon during progression of monsoon. During the period 1983–2015, the fastest progress of the monsoon was seen in the year 2013 (fastest advancement in the last 33 years) and slowest progress of monsoon was seen in the year 2002 (most lethargic advancement in the last 33 years). The results of the analyses show that variation in daily MJO‐amplitude during fast‐advancement years is more as compared with the normal and slow‐advancement years. The normal‐advancement years mostly occur during MJO phase 1 and phase 2 and fast‐advancement years frequently occur during MJO phase 2; however, slow‐advancement years are found to occur during MJO phase 5 and phase 6. The MJO phase 2 is the most frequent phase and MJO phase 8 is the least frequent phase during advance of monsoon. However, the highest amplitude is recorded during MJO phase 8. The strong (weak) monsoon current is modulated by strong (weak) MJO phases.

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“…A bogus onset is characterized by the existence of enhanced convection over land and the presence of westerly surface winds similar to those occurring during a typical onset but lasting a week or less. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been suggested to trigger the monsoon onset (Bhatla et al 2016) and its timing to develop bogus onsets (Flatau et al 2001). In this sense, Flatau et al (2001) reported the existence of six cases for the years 1967, 1972, 1979, 1986, 1995, and 1997.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the official IMD series has traditionally been the reference for most subsequent MOK definitions (e.g., Raju et al 2007;Ramesh Kumar et al 2009;Puranik et al 2013, Bhatla et al 2016, we used the official IMD series as a calibration to select optimal thresholds in the WCI aimed to identify the monsoon starting date. The maximum correlation between the MOK series produced by the IMD and those based on the WCI was obtained when the date of the WCI-based MOK was defined as the first of seven consecutive days for which the WCI over the selected domain is higher than 33%.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Tracking the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Back to the Preinstrument Period

et al. 2016

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The Indian summer monsoon onset is one of the most expected meteorological events of the world, affecting the lives of hundreds of millions of people. The India Meteorological Department has dated the monsoon onset since 1901, but its original methodology was considered subjective and it was updated in 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies on OLR measurements, which impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the 1970s. An alternative approach is the use of the wind field, but the development of such an index is limited to the period covered by reanalysis products. In this paper historical wind records taken on board ships are used to develop a new onset series using only wind direction measurements, providing an objective record of the onset since the late nineteenth century. The new series captures the rapid precipitation increase associated with the onset, correlates well with previous approaches, and is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. A tendency for later-than-average onsets during the 1900-25 and 1970-90 periods and earlier-than-average onsets between 1940 and 1965 was found. A relatively stable relationship between ENSO and Indian monsoon onset dates was found; however, this link tends to be weaker during decades characterized by prevalent La Niña conditions. Furthermore, it was found that the link between the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the onset date is limited to the phases characterized by a shift from negative to positive PDO phases.

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Impact of Madden-Julian oscillation on onset of summer monsoon over India

Cited by 40 publications

References 30 publications

Role of MJO in modulating rainfall characteristics observed over India in all seasons utilizing TRMM

Role of MJO in modulating rainfall characteristics observed over India in all seasons utilizing TRMM

An apparent relationship between Madden–Julian Oscillation and the advance of Indian summer monsoon

Tracking the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Back to the Preinstrument Period

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