Impact of Media-Induced Fear on the Control of COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mathematical Study

Maji, Chandan

doi:10.1155/2021/2129490

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The core idea is that as the disease spreads, people perceive risks, and react by increasing their NPI adherence, which decreases the spread of the disease. There are also studies where change in human behavior is more explicitly modeled by representing opinion dynamics or the spread of fear coupled with the spread of the disease [ 34 – 36 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response

Osi,

Ghaffarzadegan

2024

PLoS Comput Biol

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Behavioral epidemic models incorporating endogenous societal risk-response, where changes in risk perceptions prompt adjustments in contact rates, are crucial for predicting pandemic trajectories. Accurate parameter estimation in these models is vital for validation and precise projections. However, few studies have examined the problem of identifiability in models where disease and behavior parameters must be jointly estimated. To address this gap, we conduct simulation experiments to assess the effect on parameter estimation accuracy of a) delayed risk response, b) neglecting behavioral response in model structure, and c) integrating disease and public behavior data. Our findings reveal systematic biases in estimating behavior parameters even with comprehensive and accurate disease data and a well-structured simulation model when data are limited to the first wave. This is due to the significant delay between evolving risks and societal reactions, corresponding to the duration of a pandemic wave. Moreover, we demonstrate that conventional SEIR models, which disregard behavioral changes, may fit well in the early stages of a pandemic but exhibit significant errors after the initial peak. Furthermore, early on, relatively small data samples of public behavior, such as mobility, can significantly improve estimation accuracy. However, the marginal benefits decline as the pandemic progresses. These results highlight the challenges associated with the joint estimation of disease and behavior parameters in a behavioral epidemic model.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response

Osi,

Ghaffarzadegan

2024

PLoS Comput Biol

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“…A mathematical model of COVID-19 spread with self-isolation at home and hospitalized compartments were presented in [22]. The impact of media-induced fear on a mathematical model of COVID-19 with a non-linear incidence rate was presented in [23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Effects of Saturation Terms on A SEIR Epidemic Model with Infected and Susceptible Compartments

et al. 2023

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The importance of the saturation term in an SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) epidemic model was examined in this article. To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), examine the stabilities and run numerical simulations on the model, the next generation matrix, the Lyapunov function and Runge-Kutta techniques were used. The numerical simulation results reveal that, the saturation term has a significant influence in the model’s susceptible and infected compartments. However, as demonstrated by the simulation results, saturation term has a greater influence on vulnerable people than on infected people. As a result, greater sensitization programs through seminars, media, and awareness will be more beneficial to the vulnerable class than the afflicted class during disease eradication.

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“…[8,9], applied a numerical method introduced by [10], to carry out simulation in their model. It is no news that COVID-19 pandemic has been a major threat to the existing population of the globe since it outbreaks in Wuhan China (2019), [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Disease prevention is influenced by media coverage, since the spread of communicable diseases is subject to the information and spreading potentials of the diseases [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this research a control strategy on the curb of the virus based on vaccination is studied. A 5 compartmental time-based epidemic model of COVID-19 virus adopted from [11] is modified by incorporating vaccination parameter  into the susceptible and recovered class to examine the effect of vaccination rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Simulation of Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Incorporated with Vaccination and Media Induced Fear

Bashiru

Kolawole²,

Olaosebikan³

2023

Trends Sci

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COVID-19 pandemic is now increasing concern to authorities and public health officials. The study is aimed to investigate the impact of vaccination in the absence of media induced fear. In this research, analysis and simulation of a mathematical model of COVID-19 incorporated with media induced fear and vaccination was made, the total population is divided into 5 sub-population classes; Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Quarantine and Recovery. The disease free and the endemic equilibrium of the model were carried out and the basic reproduction number was obtained using the next generation matrix. The stability analysis of the model was done and it was ascertained that the disease free equilibrium of the biological model is stable. Due to its efficiency and accuracy in handling nonlinear coupled ordinary differential equations, the homotopy perturbation method is applied to obtain the approximate solution of the mathematical model and the obtained results was simulated using the computation software Maple 18 to study the impact of vaccination in each compartment of the model when the media induced fear. The outcome of the simulation process were presented graphically and interpreted accordingly and it was discovered that in eradicating the spread of COVID-19 in a society where there is no fear, vaccination is an alternative and better measure. HIGHLIGHTS Model formulation with vaccination Stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium Numerical simulation of the mathematical model using the homotopy perturbation method Analysis of the impact of vaccination in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the absence of media induced fear GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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Impact of Media-Induced Fear on the Control of COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mathematical Study

Cited by 8 publications

References 44 publications

Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response

Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response

On the Effects of Saturation Terms on A SEIR Epidemic Model with Infected and Susceptible Compartments

Analysis and Simulation of Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Incorporated with Vaccination and Media Induced Fear

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