Impact of Migration on Non-Migrant School Completion Rates and Enrolment in South Africa

Abstract

South Africa struggles with low secondary school completion rates and this has a negative effect on poverty and inequality. In this study, we examine the relationship between internal migration (international migrants were excluded) and non-migrant educational outcomes (secondary school enrolment and completion rates) in South Africa between 1996 and 2011. We use census data for the years 1996, 2001 and 2011 (at the district and municipal levels) in several linear probability regression models that include the First Difference (FD) and System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) with instrumental variables. The 2011 census is the latest available in South Africa now. We find that internal migrants have a positive effect on both enrolment and completion rates of non-migrants. These results vary in intensity depending on the level of education of both internal migrant and non-migrant household heads. These results have implications for the local labour market and for income inequality in South Africa; internal migrants provide positive peer effects that contribute to raising non-migration enrolment and completion. Internal migrants also provide job market competition which influences non-migrants to complete secondary schooling. There is scant empirical evidence on the impact of internal migration on education outcomes in African countries, especially in South Africa. Our paper provides evidence from a country with a history of persistent internal migration. Most prior research has focused on the relationship between immigration and education outcomes in the developed world. We recommend that government improves secondary school quality in rural and urban areas and increase study loans for students at tertiary institutions.