Background
Distant metastatic breast cancer (MBC), including metastases found at diagnosis (de novo) and those occurring later (recurrence), represents the most severe form of the disease, when resource utilization is most intensive. Yet, the number of women living with MBC in the US is unknown. The objective of this paper is to use population-based data to estimate the prevalence of MBC.
Methods
We used a back-calculation method to estimate MBC prevalence from US BC mortality and survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries. Based on the illness-death process, this method assumes that each observed BC death is the result of MBC, either de novo or a recurrence with metastatic disease.
Results
We estimate that by January 1, 2017 there will be 154,794 women living with MBC in the United States, 3 in 4 initially diagnosed with stage IâIII BC who later progressed to MBC.
Median survival and 5-year relative survival for de novo MBC increased over the years, especially in younger women. We estimate a 2-fold increase in 5-year relative survival from 18% to 36%, for women diagnosed with de novo MBC at age 15â49 between 1992â1994 and 2005â2012, respectively.
Conclusion
This study demonstrates an increasing number of women in the US living with MBC, likely the result of improvements in treatment and aging of the US population.
Impact
The increasing burden of MBC highlights the importance of documenting recurrence in order to foster more research into the specific needs of this understudied population.