Impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone track over the western north pacific: A numerical investigation based on two case studies

Abstract

The impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone (TC) track over the western North Pacific is an open issue. Relatively little is known about possible changes in TC tracks under ocean warming conditions due to both inhomogeneous observation networks and large natural variability over a relatively short observational period. A suite of semiidealized numerical experiments on two TC cases is conducted to investigate the response of TC tracks to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that the simulated TC track is highly sensitive to underlying SST. Specifically, through its influence on the radial distribution of sea surface enthalpy, ocean warming can lead to changes in the tangential wind profile and thus increase the TC size in terms of the radius of gale force wind, which is attributed to the increase in maximum wind speed, the expansion of the radius of maximum wind, and the additional increase in outer winds. The increased TC size, as suggested by previous studies, further leads to the eastward withdrawal of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and thus a northward turning of the TC. Results of climate simulations in the present study provide further evidence for the aforementioned impact of ocean warming on TC size and thus the WPSH and TC track. Results of the present study also imply that the threat of storms to countries in East Asia may be reduced due to possible changes in TC tracks if ocean warming continues in the future.

Monthly variations of tropical cyclone rapid intensification ratio in the western North Pacific

“…Furthermore, the long‐term (i.e., inter‐annual and inter‐decadal) variability of TC RI ratio is not investigated yet. Recent studies (Sun et al, ; Wang et al, , ) pointed out that the large‐scale climate modes, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific‐North America pattern (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have impacts on the RI via the modulation on the large‐scale dynamic and thermodynamic environment. These issues await further study.…”

“…During the RI period, TCs are affected by multi‐scale processes that govern the inner‐core structure and interactions between the storm and environmental conditions. For instance, the processes include TC interaction with subsurface oceanic thermal conditions (Mei, Xie, Primeau, McWilliams, & Pasquero, ; Shay et al, ; Wang, Wang, Weisberg, & Black, ; Wang, Wang, Zhang, & Wang, ), responses to vertical wind shears (VWSs; Ge, Li, & Peng, ; Reasor et al, ), concentric eyewall replacement cycles (Willoughby, Clos, & Shoreibah, ; Kossin & Sitkowski, ; Ge et al, ), modifications in upper‐level outflow (Molinari & Vollaro, ), global warming (Sun et al, ), and many others.…”

Subtropical High Affects Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the South China Sea

“…The linkage between the TCs and WPSH has been extensively studied (e.g., Ho et al, ; Huang et al, ; Li & Zhou, ; Ling et al, , ; Liu & Chan, ; Sun et al, ; Sun et al, ; Sun et al, ; Sun et al, ; Wang et al, ; Wang et al, ). Wang et al () pointed out that the intensity changes of East Asian jet stream and WPSH can affect vertical wind shear over the SCS.…”

“…Noticeably, TC can also feedback on large-scale circulation (e.g., SH). Recent studies indicate that, as TC approaches the WPSH, the TC anvil clouds can contribute to the weakening and withdraw of WPSH through the thermodynamic processes (e.g., Sun et al, 2014;Sun et al, 2017;Sun, Zhong, Dong, et al, 2015;Sun, Zhong, Yi, et al, 2015).…”

Superiority of Mega‐ENSO Index in the Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

“…Tropical cyclones (TCs) are probably the most devastating natural hazards (Emanuel, 2005a; Peduzzi et al, 2012; Shen et al, 2018; Zhang et al, 2009, 2016). The bulk of research on TCs has focused on the dynamics of TC genesis (Chia & Ropelewski, 2002; Gray, 1998), landfall (Chan & Liang, 2003; Kossin, 2018; Tuleya et al, 1984), track (Fraedrich & Leslie, 1989; Harr & Elsberry, 1991; Holland & Lander, 1993; Riehl & Shafer, 1944; Sun et al, 2017a), intensity (Camargo & Sobel, 2005; Emanuel et al, 2004), and destructiveness (Emanuel, 2005; Sun et al, 2017b). As the most active basin of TC frequency in the world (Chan, 2005), the TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) cause serious social and economic destruction in the Asia‐Pacific region (Gao et al, 2018; Park et al, 2011; Peduzzi et al, 2012).…”