Impact of Pandemic on Commuters’ Mode Choice Behavior: A Case Study of Dalian City, China

Abstract

Fear of COVID-19 infection has influenced individuals’ decisions on making travel choices. Consequently, an unprecedented change occurred in travel behavior around the world. This study analyzes commuters’ mode choice behavior during COVID-19 using stated preference data collected in Dalian. In addition to the usual practice of taking sociodemographic and travel characteristics into account, the study also quantifies the effect of safety regulations on commuters’ mode choice behavior. A multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (ML) model with panel correlation are developed to understand the impact of various factors on commuters’ mode choice. It is found that commuters prefer the mode with more stringent COVID-19 safety regulations than the one with lenient regulations. Additionally, safety regulations implemented during the corona crisis significantly increased subway ridership relative to bus; however, a noticeable shift from transit to the private car is observed. We found income, education, employment status, car ownership before pandemic and safety regulations were the variables that have a significant association with subway use. Similarly, gender and car ownership, both before and during COVID-19, have a significant positive impact, while education and employments are negatively associated with the choice of private cars. The findings will be useful for planners and policymakers for further regulating the transportation system during a crisis like the corona pandemic.