Impact of Personal Care Habits on Post-Lockdown COVID-19 Contagion: Insights from Agent-based Simulations

Abstract

After the first wave of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are struggling to recover their economies by slowly lifting the mobility restrictions and social distance measures enforced during the crisis. Therefore, the post-lockdown containment of the disease will depend strongly not any more on government-imposed interventions but on personal care measures, taken voluntarily by their citizens. In this respect, recent studies have shed some light regarding the effectiveness individual protection habits may have in preventing SARS-Cov-2 transmission, particularly physical contact distancing, facial mask wearing and hand-washing habits. In this paper we describe experiments performed on a simulated COVID-19 epidemic in an artificial population using an agent based model, so as to illustrate to what extent the interplay between such personal care habits contributes to mitigate the spread of the disease, assuming the lack of other population-wide non-pharmaceutical interventions or vaccines. We discuss scenarios where wide adherence to these voluntary care habits alone, can be enough to contain the unfold of the contagion. Our model purpose is illustrative and contributes to ratify the importance of disseminating the message regarding the collective benefits of mass adoption of personal protection and hygiene habits, as an exit strategy for COVID-19 in the new normal state.