Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses

Abstract

This review summarizes the evidence from cross-country, macro-level studies on the way demographic factors and processes-specifically, population, age structure, household size, urbanization, and population density-influence carbon emissions and energy consumption. Analyses employing time-variant data have produced great variance in population elasticity estimations-sometimes significantly greater than one, sometimes significantly less than one; whereas, cross-sectional analyses typically have estimated population elasticities near one. Studies that have considered age structure typically have used standard World Bank definitions, and mostly have found those variables to be insignificant. However, when researchers have considered levels of disaggregation that approximate life-cycle behavior like family size, they have uncovered relationships that are complex and nonlinear. Average household size has a negative relationship with road energy use and aggregate carbon emissions. Urbanization appears positively associated with energy consumption and carbon emissions. Higher population density is associated with lower levels of energy consumption and emissions.

Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

“…Additionally, less developed regions will account for most of the population growth expected in urban areas. While the impact of urbanization on the environment has been studied (e.g., see [2] for a review), understanding regarding the poverty-urbanization relationship is lacking [3]. Yet, those two forces-poverty and urbanization-are apparent causes for the lack of achieving sustainable development [3].…”

The Scale, Structure and Influencing Factors of Total Carbon Emissions from Households in 30 Provinces of China—Based on the Extended STIRPAT Model

“…And the effects of GDP, urbanization rate, 0-14-year-old children's ratio on the emission of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in European Union countries in 1995-2005 were analyzed. Brantley [31] summarized the literatures, which used the STIRPAT model to study the impacts of total population, age structure, family size and urbanization rate on carbon emissions. This paper summarizes the methods, conclusions, and limitations of existing studies as presented in Table 1.…”

Effect of Population Structure Change on Carbon Emission in China

“…Contrary to the former three models, the regression coefficient of regional population urban and rural structure (urban) was negative, and it showed 10% significance, indicated that development of urbanization would reduce the consumption inhibitory factor effect (∆C ci f ). Although the development of urbanization has promoted the rising of the urban population, and increased the amount of residents' consumption, the residents' consumption ratio in provinces of China decreased continuously during the sample period according to the data of the China Statistical Yearbook [43]. Therefore, the contribution of urbanization development on the overall economy was stronger than on residents' consumption.…”

“…Although some literature considered the effect of population scale change, population structure change, and change of population age structure on carbon emission [43,44], most literature still ignored the effect of population sex structure change and population education and occupation structure change mentioned previously. In addition, although the positive effect of increasing the size and level of consumption on carbon emission has become a consensus, there were few studies related to the effect of change of consumption structure on carbon emission.…”