Impact of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological responses of small-scale catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Lemann, Tatenda; Roth, Vincent; Zeleke, Gete

doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1217415

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Manifestations about hydrological components of the different types of climate change were related to the response relationship. In one case, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological components might be consistent with each other which was same as Lemann's opinions [37]. Such as when the climate change type (I) occurred, the GWF would increase, whereas in type (II), the decrease of precipitation and DTR commonly promoted the decrease of GWF.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Hydrological Components Variability under the Impact of Climate Change in a Semi-Arid River Basin

Zhang

Yang

Hao

et al. 2019

Water

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With increased attention paid to the changes of global climate, the impacts on hydrological processes remain poorly understood in specific basins. In this study, we selected Luanhe River Basin, which is an important source of water supply to Beijing and Hebei, as a case study for the analysis of the combined impact of precipitation and temperature change to hydrological components in a semi-arid river basin. This study investigated the change of the blue water flow (BWF), green water flow (GWF), and green water storage (GWS) by employing the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and stochastic methods in different time scales during 1960 to 2017. The contribution of climate changes to hydrological change were quantified by 16 hypothetical scenarios by recombining climatic data. The results show that the annual daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin) increased while their differences (DTR) decreased. However, there was no significant trend in annual precipitation and hydrological components. The trend of precipitation has a positive impact to the change of all three hydrological components. Although precipitation contributes more to changes in hydrological components, more attention also needs to be given to the change of DTR, which has positive impact of GWF that contrasts with that of BWF and GWS. Seasonal scale studies of these changes suggested that more attention should be paid to the climate change in spring and winter when the hydrological components were more sensitive to climate change. Our results summarized hydrological components variability under the impact of climate change and demonstrated the importance of analyses at different time scales, which was expected to provide a reference for water resources management in other semi-arid river basins.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Hydrological Components Variability under the Impact of Climate Change in a Semi-Arid River Basin

Zhang

Yang

Hao

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The correlation (r = 0.54) is shown in Figure 6 (left), with the mean annual precipitation and drainage ratio data from the 323 watersheds in the upper Blue Nile basin. This correlation was already observed by Lemann et al [30] in a comparison of the different hydrological responses of three small-scale catchments in the upper Blue Nile basin; after a predefined amount of precipitation, additional rainfall apparently increases the share of blue water leaving a catchment. Liu et al [78] and Steenhuis et al [79] discussed an effective precipitation threshold (precipitation minus potential evaporation) of 500 mm, where hydrological response can be predicted by its linear relationship to precipitation.…”

Section: Spatial Variabilities In Drainage Ratiosupporting

confidence: 75%

“…More detailed discharge modelling was conducted by many studies at the catchment level in different watersheds in the upper Blue Nile basin [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. Lemann et al [30] showed the different hydrological responses to different rainfall patterns and different meteorological conditions in the upper Blue Nile basin, but only at the sub-basin level. Prior to this study, there was no detailed analysis of hydrological responses and discharge simulations over a longer time period at the national basin level, with a soil and land use map of a high spatial resolution and DEM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prior to this study, there was no detailed analysis of hydrological responses and discharge simulations over a longer time period at the national basin level, with a soil and land use map of a high spatial resolution and DEM. The heterogeneity of the seasonal climate, topography, soil and land cover, and land management cause big differences in discharge ratios in the Ethiopian Highlands and show the importance of studies with a higher temporal and spatial resolution [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial and Temporal Variability in Hydrological Responses of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Lemann

Roth

Zeleke

et al. 2018

Water

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To assess the spatial and temporal availability of blue and green water for up- and downstream stakeholders, the hydrological responses of the upper Blue Nile basin in the Ethiopian Highlands was modelled and analysed with newly generated input data, such as soil and land use maps. To consider variations in the seasonal climate, topography, soil, land use, and land management, the upper Blue Nile basin was modelled in seven major sub-basins. The modelling showed significant spatial and temporal differences in the hydrological responses of different sub-basins and years. The long-term mean annual drainage ratios of the watersheds range from <0.1 to >0.65, and the annual drainage ratio of one sub-basin can vary from 0.22 to 0.49. Steep slopes, shallow soils, and cultivated areas increase the drainage ratios due to high surface runoff, low soil moisture content, and a smaller share of evapotranspiration. Various climate change scenarios predict more precipitation, and land use change scenarios foresee a higher share of cultivated areas due to population growth. In view of these trends, results from our study suggest that drainage ratios will increase and more available blue water can be expected for downstream stakeholders.

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“…Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada (Zhang et al 2018). The evapotranspiration was expected to increase at rates similar to those of the temperature and rainfall dynamics, which is in agreement with findings (Gebre and Ludwig 2015;Lemann et al 2017;Teklesadik et al 2017;Birhan and Worku 2018) in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The evapotranspiration, however, is expected to decrease during winter under RCP8.5, contrary to most of the studies conducted in the surrounding watersheds (Enyew et al 2014;Ayele et al 2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Teklay

Dile

Asfaw

et al. 2020

Preprint

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BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

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Impact of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological responses of small-scale catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Cited by 16 publications

References 58 publications

Hydrological Components Variability under the Impact of Climate Change in a Semi-Arid River Basin

Hydrological Components Variability under the Impact of Climate Change in a Semi-Arid River Basin

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Hydrological Responses of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

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