Impact of public health interventions in controlling the spread of SARS: Modelling of intervention scenarios

Krumkamp, Ralf; Duerr, Hans-Peter; Reintjes, Ralf; Ahmad, Amena; Kassen, Annette; Eichner, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.ijheh.2008.01.004

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Die Falldetektion mit anschließender Isolierung ist auch bei SARS das Rückgrat der Ausbruchs-Kontrolle. Ein Vorteil für die Kontrolle von SARS ist, dass nur Erkrankte infektiös sind [64]. Konsequente Schutzmaßnahmen des klinischen Personals während der medizinischen Betreuung der Patienten sind auch hier obligatorisch.…”

Section: Präventions-und Bekämpfungsmaßnahmenunclassified

Epidemiologie des Ebolafiebers und anderer, in Deutschland seltener hochkontagiöser, lebensbedrohlicher Erkrankungen

Ehlkes

Kreuels

Schwarz

et al. 2015

Bundesgesundheitsbl.

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Apart from sporadic exported cases, the occurrence of Ebola, Marburg and Lassa virus diseases is limited to the African continent. Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever occurs in Southeastern Europe but, so far, not in Germany. Other hemorrhagic fever disease-viruses occur in distinct regions in South America. Pulmonary plague is the bacterial infectious disease with the most contagious and lethal course and it is endemic to Madagascar and East Africa, but also occurs in other countries (e.g. India, USA). Monkey pox epidemics have occurred in remote areas of the Congo Basin. Such outbreaks could potentially become more common with the discontinuation of the cross-protective smallpox vaccination. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that emerged in 2002/2003 is another pathogen with significant epidemic potential. Typical for these diseases is a natural circulation between reservoir animals in remote areas. Sporadic transmission to humans can occur through contact with an infected animal. Subsequent human-to-human transmission can lead to epidemics, such as the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa.

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Section: Präventions-und Bekämpfungsmaßnahmenunclassified

Epidemiologie des Ebolafiebers und anderer, in Deutschland seltener hochkontagiöser, lebensbedrohlicher Erkrankungen

Ehlkes

Kreuels

Schwarz

et al. 2015

Bundesgesundheitsbl.

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“…Casal, Moreso, Planas-Cuchi, and Casal (1997) simulated airborne spread of virus using ALOHA (areal location of hazardous atmospheres, NOAA, 1992), which resulted in a 7 km dispersion distance. Donaldson, Alexandersen, Sorensen, and Mikkelsen (2001) mentioned that the airborne dispersion of FMD virus excreted by cows and sheep can be 100e200 m. Krumkamp et al (2009) used an effective reproduction number to estimate the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus spread, and suggested that close contact and exposure to virus are very important for disease spread. Regional airflow patterns play an important role on airborne FMD virus spread, as suggested by Mayer et al (2008), who used a Lagrangian-particle model.…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, considerable numbers of quantitative variables relied on expert opinions and required more research. Abbreviations AWS automatic weather station CDMA code division multiple access CFD computational fluid dynamics DEM digital elevation model FMD foot-and-mouth disease GIS geographical information system PM10 particle matter under 10 mm SAS severe acute respiratory syndrome SEM-EDX scanning election microscopy energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy TCID 50 50% tissue culture infective dose TIN triangular irregular network WDAS weather data acquisition server WebFoS web-based forecasting system b i o s y s t e m s e n g i n e e r i n g 1 2 9 ( 2 0 1 5 ) 1 6 9 e1 8 4 Aerodynamics models have been developed to predict the airborne spread of livestock diseases (Krumkamp et al, 2009;Mayer, Reiczigel, & Rubel, 2008;Seo et al, 2014). Among various simulation techniques, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) which solves mathematically aerodynamic problems in various research fields, has been considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Web-based forecasting system for the airborne spread of livestock infectious disease using computational fluid dynamics

Seo

Lee

Hong

et al. 2015

Biosystems Engineering

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Computational fluid dynamicsFoot-and-mouth disease GIS OpenFOAM Livestock infectious diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), cause substantial economic damage to livestock farms and their related industries. Among various causes of disease spread, airborne dispersion has previously been considered to be an important factor that could not be controlled by preventive measures to stop the spread of disease that focus on direct and indirect contact. Forecasting and predicting airborne virus spread are important to make time for developing strategies and to minimise the damage of the disease. To predict the airborne spread of the disease a modelling approach is important since field experiments using sensors are ineffective because of the rarefied concentrations of virus in the air. The simulation of airborne spread during past outbreaks required improvement both for farmers and for policy decision makers. In this study a free license computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code was used to simulate airborne virus spread.Forecasting data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was directly connected in the developed model for real-time forecasting for 48 h in three-hourly intervals.To reduce computation time, scalar transport for airborne virus spread was simulated based on a database for the CFD computed airflow in the investigated area using representative wind conditions. The simulation results, and the weather data were then used to make a database for a web-based forecasting system that could be accessible to users. ScienceDirect jo urnal homepage: www .e lsev ie r.com/ locate/issn/153 75110 b i o s y s t e m s e n g i n e e r i n g 1 2 9 ( 2 0 1 5 ) 1 6 9 e1 8 4 http://dx.

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“…Hierdurch wird nur ein geringer, zus ä tzlicher Beitrag zur Reduzierung der Ü bertragungsrate geleistet. Allerdings, haben diese Ma ß nahmen erhebliche soziale und wirtschaftliche Konsequenzen zur Folge [15] . …”

Section: Modellierung Von Interventionsma ß Nahmen Zur Kontrolle Von unclassified

Prävention und Kontrolle von pandemischen Infektionskrankheiten: Das EU-Projekt SARSControl

Ahmad¹,

Krumkamp²,

Richardus³

et al. 2009

Gesundheitswesen

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The basic prerequisites of an efficient pandemic management are operationalisable pandemic plans, subjected to regular exercises, backed by adequate resources and a sound health-care infrastructure. At international level cross-border co-operation and information exchange on infection control is the key to pandemic mitigation and containment. Strengthening surveillance systems at the international level, to allow the timely monitoring of infectious agents and outbreaks is essential. Transferring such outbreak information in real time into mathematical models and the resulting essential epidemiological information to policy makers would facilitate a more efficient use of scarce resources. Involvement of the public in decisions regarding the implementation of restrictive control measures which often curtail individual liberty is necessary for the acceptance and ultimate success of pandemic control.

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Impact of public health interventions in controlling the spread of SARS: Modelling of intervention scenarios

Cited by 20 publications

References 36 publications

Epidemiologie des Ebolafiebers und anderer, in Deutschland seltener hochkontagiöser, lebensbedrohlicher Erkrankungen

Epidemiologie des Ebolafiebers und anderer, in Deutschland seltener hochkontagiöser, lebensbedrohlicher Erkrankungen

Web-based forecasting system for the airborne spread of livestock infectious disease using computational fluid dynamics

Prävention und Kontrolle von pandemischen Infektionskrankheiten: Das EU-Projekt SARSControl

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