Background:
The dimensionless Rajan’s heart failure (R-hf) risk score was proposed to predict all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with chronic heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF).
Purpose:
To examine the association between the modified R-hf risk score and all-cause mortality in patients with HFrEF.
Methods:
Retrospective cohort study included adults hospitalized with HFrEF, as defined by clinical symptoms of HF with biplane EF <40% on transthoracic echocardiography, at a tertiary center in Dalian, China, between November 1, 2015, and October 31, 2019. All patients were followed-up until October 31, 2020. A modified R-hf risk score was calculated by substituting brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) for N-terminal prohormone of BNP (NT-proBNP) using EF× estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)× hemoglobin (Hb))/BNP. The patients were stratified into tertiles according to the R-hf risk score. The measured outcome was all-cause mortality. The score performance was assessed using C-statistics.
Results:
A total of 840 patients were analyzed (70.2% males; mean age, 64±14 years; median (IQR) follow-up 37.0 (27.8) months). A lower modified R-hf risk score predicted a higher risk of all-cause mortality, independent of sex and age (1st tertile vs. 3rd tertile: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.46; 95% confidence interval (CI):2.11-5.67; P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that a lower modified R-hf risk score was associated with increased cumulative all-cause mortality [univariate: (1st tertile vs. 3rd tertile: aHR, 3.45; 95% CI:2.11-5.65; P<0.001) and multivariate: (1st tertile vs. 3rd tertile: aHR 2.21, 95% CI:1.29-3.79; P=0.004)]. The performance of the model, as reported by C-statistic was 0.67 (95% CI:0.62-0.72).
Conclusion:
The modified R-hf risk score predicted all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with HFrEF. Further validation of the modified R-hf risk score in other cohorts of patients with HFrEF is needed before clinical application.