16Rapid point-of-care resistance diagnostics (POC-RD) are a key tool in the fight against 17 antibiotic resistance. By tailoring drug choice to infection genotype, doctors can improve 18 treatment efficacy while limiting costs of inappropriate antibiotic prescription. Here we 19 combine epidemiological theory and data to assess the potential of RD innovations in a 20 public health context, as a means to limit or even reverse selection for antibiotic 21 resistance. POC-RD can be used to impose a non-biological fitness cost on resistant 22 strains, by enabling diagnostic-informed treatment and targeted interventions that 23 reduce resistant strains' opportunities for transmission. We assess this diagnostic-24 imposed fitness cost in the context of a spectrum of bacterial population biologies, and 25 find that the expected impact varies from selection against resistance for obligate 26 pathogens to marginal public health improvements for opportunistic pathogens with high 27 'bystander' antibiotic exposure during asymptomatic carriage (e.g. the pneumococcus).
28We close by generalizing the notion of RD-informed strategies to incorporate carriage 29 surveillance information, and illustrate that coupling transmission-control interventions to 30 the discovery of resistant strains in carriage can potentially select against resistance in 31 a broad range of opportunistic pathogens. 32 33 34 "Because antibiotic resistance occurs as part of a natural evolution 35 process, it can be significantly slowed but not stopped. Therefore, new 36 antibiotics will always be needed to keep up with resistant bacteria." 37 (CDC, "Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2013") (1) 38 The antimicrobial resistance crisis threatens to undermine key features of modern 39 medicine, at great costs in terms of patient morbidity, mortality and treatment expense 40 (2-6). Current mainstream antibiotic-treatment strategies sow the seeds of their own 41 downfall by strongly selecting for resistant strains, leading some to argue that continual 42 new-antibiotic discovery is the only way to stay ahead of a "post-antibiotic future" (1, 7, 43 8). If this bleak vision is correct, there is an urgent need to buy time by extending the 44 lifespan of existing antibiotics while research and development for new ones takes its 45 course. More optimistically, it may be possible to improve how we use existing 46 antibiotics and to implement other control measures so that an endless supply of new 47 antibiotics is not required. 48 Among a number of innovative approaches to improve antibiotic use (9-15), one of the 49 most promising leverages point-of-care resistance diagnostics (POC-RD) that provide 50 prescribers with a rapid readout of the sensitivity/resistance profile of an infecting 51 organism. POC-RD allows prescribers to choose older, cheaper, and/or narrower-52 spectrum antibiotics when such drugs are most appropriate for patients, thereby saving 53 newer, more expensive, and/or broader-spectrum antibiotics for situations where they 54 are rea...