PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the number of patients under a primary care physician's care (panel size) and primary care quality indicators.
METHODSWe conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study of fee-forservice and capitated interprofessional and non-interprofessional primary health care practices in Ontario, Canada between April 2008 and March 2010, encompassing 4,195 physicians with panel sizes ≥1,200 serving 8.3 million patients. Data was extracted from multiple linked, health-related administrative databases and covered 16 quality indicators spanning 5 dimensions of care: access, continuity, comprehensiveness, and evidence-based indicators of cancer screening and chronic disease management.
RESULTSThe likelihood of being up-to-date on cervical, colorectal, and breast cancer screening showed relative decreases of 7.9% (P <.001), 5.9% (P = .01), and 4.6% (P <.001), respectively, with increasing panel size (from 1,200 to 3,900). Eight chronic care indicators (4 medication-based and 4 screening-based) showed no significant association with panel size. The likelihood of individuals with a new diagnosis of congestive heart failure having an echocardiogram, however, increased by a relative 8.1% (P <.001) with higher panel size. Increasing panel size was also associated with a 10.8% relative increase in hospitalization rates for ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (P = .04) and a 10.8% decrease in non-urgent emergency department visits (P = .004). Continuity was highest with medium panel sizes (P <.001), and comprehensiveness had a small decrease (P = .03) with increasing panel size.
CONCLUSIONSIncreasing panel size was associated with small decreases in cancer screening, continuity, and comprehensiveness, but showed no consistent relationships with chronic disease management or access indicators. We found no panel size threshold above which quality of care suffered. Ann Fam Med 2016;14:26-33. doi: 10.1370/afm.1864.
INTRODUCTIONG iven the central role that primary health care plays in creating a sustainable health care system, improving access to high quality primary health care is an international priority. 1 Where physician resources are scarce, one way to achieve better population coverage and ensure that all individuals have a primary care physician is to promote larger panel sizes, defined as the number of patients under the care of a primary care provider. There is, however, a concern that quality may decline at larger panel sizes. 2 Establishing the "ideal" panel size for a primary care physician by striking a balance between population access and quality of care is a key objective for decision-makers and clinicians. Setting a maximum size or range, however, is challenging because quality of care can be influenced by a large number of patient, provider, and contextual factors.Studies have reported significant correlations between larger panel sizes and shorter consultations, 3 fewer home visits, 4,5 and higher rates of referral to specialists. 6...