Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation

Gunda, Thushara; Bazuin, J. T.; Nay, John J.; Yeung, Kam Leung

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef7

Cited by 45 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Our analysis indicates that in such models, socioeconomic and governance metrics need to be explicitly considered. This approach could be used to evaluate the impact of different adaptation strategies to future changes in climate, urbanization, and other potential disruptions as well as enable incorporation of insights from survey-based and other field methods (Gunda et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prominent Influence of Socioeconomic and Governance Factors on the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in sub‐Saharan Africa

2019

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Food, energy, and water (FEW) are primary resources required for human populations and ecosystems. Availability of the raw resources is essential, but equally important are the services that deliver resources to human populations, such as adequate access to safe drinking water, electricity, and sufficient food. Any failures in either resource availability or FEW resources-related services will have an impact on human health. The ability of countries to intervene and overcome the challenges in the FEW domain depends on governance, education, and economic capacities. We distinguish between FEW resources, FEW services, and FEW health outcomes to develop an analysis framework for evaluating interrelationships among these critical resources. The framework is applied using a data-driven approach for sub-Saharan African countries, a region with notable FEW insecurity challenges. The data-driven approach using a cross-validated stepwise regression analysis indicates that limited governance and socioeconomic capacity in sub-Saharan African countries, rather than lack of the primary resources, more significantly impact access to FEW services and associated health outcomes. The proposed framework helps develop a cohesive approach for evaluating FEW metrics and could be applied to other regions of the world to continue improving our understanding of the FEW nexus.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prominent Influence of Socioeconomic and Governance Factors on the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in sub‐Saharan Africa

2019

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“…The impact of water availability and economic policies on crop selection and farmer livelihoods have been well established (Elshafei et al, ; Gunda et al, ), but community insights indicate that time management is an important variable that connects the socioeconomic and sociocultural dynamics in acequias (Turner et al, ) (Figure ). Specifically, stakeholder insights indicated that with more time in agriculture, parciantes shift away from producing hay and alfalfa toward higher valued commodities such as green chile and other vegetables, which require more labor to cultivate and maintain (supporting information Figure S3).…”

Section: Study Area and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influential Role of Sociocultural Feedbacks on Community‐Managed Irrigation System Behaviors During Times of Water Stress

Gunda

Turner

Tidwell

2018

Water Resources Research

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Sociohydrological studies use interdisciplinary approaches to explore the complex interactions between physical and social water systems and increase our understanding of emergent and paradoxical system behaviors. The dynamics of community values and social cohesion, however, have received little attention in modeling studies due to quantification challenges. Social structures associated with community‐managed irrigation systems around the world, in particular, reflect these communities' experiences with a multitude of natural and social shocks. Using the Valdez acequia (a communally‐managed irrigation community in northern New Mexico) as a simulation case study, we evaluate the impact of that community's social structure in governing its responses to water availability stresses posed by climate change. Specifically, a system dynamics model (developed using insights from community stakeholders and multiple disciplines that captures biophysical, socioeconomic, and sociocultural dynamics of acequia systems) was used to generate counterfactual trajectories to explore how the community would behave with streamflow conditions expected under climate change. We found that earlier peak flows, combined with adaptive measures of shifting crop selection, allowed for greater production of higher value crops and fewer people leaving the acequia. The economic benefits were lost, however, if downstream water pressures increased. Even with significant reductions in agricultural profitability, feedbacks associated with community cohesion buffered the community's population and land parcel sizes from more detrimental impacts, indicating the community's resilience under natural and social stresses. Continued exploration of social structures is warranted to better understand these systems' responses to stress and identify possible leverage points for strengthening community resilience.

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“…Market forces may also play a role if the cost to pump the irrigation water exceeds the marginal return in yield. Last but not the least, irrigation practices are also heavily informed by tradition and the actions of their neighbors (Gunda et al, 2017).…”

Section: Land Usementioning

confidence: 99%

A Uniform Practice for Conceptualizing and Communicating Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus Studies

Gunda

Tidwell

2019

Earth's Future

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There is growing interest in nexus research: energy‐water, energy‐water‐land, and more recently food‐energy‐water. Motivating this movement is the recognition that the dynamics and feedbacks that constitute these nexuses have been overlooked in the past but are critical to the planning and management of these interacting elements. Formal reviews have identified gaps in current studies. In this commentary, we highlight additional oversights that are hindering integration of findings in nexus studies, notably usage of imprecise terminology to describe analyses, a failure to close the loop by linking production with corresponding waste streams, and exclusion of dynamics linking diverse constituent elements. Equally lacking from current nexus studies is a consistent protocol for communicating the conceptual basis of our studies. To fill this gap, we draw on diverse perspectives and fields to propose a comprehensive and systematic framework that can guide the model conceptualization phase of nexus studies. We also present a standardized documentation practice (similar to one utilized by the agent‐based modeling community) to facilitate communication of nexus studies. These initiatives can improve our ability to account for and communicate the nuanced, food‐energy‐water nexus interactions in a consistent manner, which is necessary to better inform risk analysis and avoid decisions with unintended consequences and hidden costs to society.

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Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation

Cited by 45 publications

References 68 publications

Prominent Influence of Socioeconomic and Governance Factors on the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in sub‐Saharan Africa

Prominent Influence of Socioeconomic and Governance Factors on the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in sub‐Saharan Africa

The Influential Role of Sociocultural Feedbacks on Community‐Managed Irrigation System Behaviors During Times of Water Stress

A Uniform Practice for Conceptualizing and Communicating Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus Studies

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