Impact of SST on heavy rainfall events on eastern Adriatic during SOP1 of HyMeX

Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan; Stanešić, Antonio; Tudor, Martina; Plenković, Iris Odak; Janeković, Ivica

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.019

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The variation in the Mediterranean moisture contribution to precipitation throughout the year has been observed in many studies, and clear seasonal differences in the moisture contribution have been shown [4,24]. However, in general, the anomalous contribution percentage from the Mediterranean Sea was positive during summer and spring (reaching 100% for several of the duration lengths) when major precipitation and floods where recorded over the region [5,15], and confirms the results of other studies that have characterised these seasons being a favourable period for extreme precipitation in the central Mediterranean region [43,44]. This behaviour, occurring in winter the maxima occurrence of extremes and being summer and spring when the Mediterranean Sea act as the major positive source of moisture is a consequence of the Mediterranean Sea is not the unique climatological source of moisture for the region (for instance, the Danube River Basin itself or the continental surrounding areas [4]), and many extreme events are generated by moisture that has another origin (all those that show negative values in Table 2 and Tables S1-S5), or to the fact that during winter the region is affected by the transition of synoptic systems that enhance the amount of precipitation during longer periods that during summer when the convective and shorter event are more common [45,46].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Contribution of Moisture from Mediterranean Sea to Extreme Precipitation Events over Danube River Basin

Ciric

Nieto

Ramos

et al. 2018

Water

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In the most recent decades, central Europe and the Danube River Basin area have been affected by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall, which has resulted in the more frequent occurrence of significant flood events. This study characterised the link between moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and extreme precipitation events, with varying lengths that were recorded over the Danube River basin between 1981 and 2015, and ranked the events with respect to the different time scales. The contribution of the Mediterranean Sea to the detected extreme precipitation events was then estimated using the Lagrangian FLEXPART dispersion model. Experiments were modelled in its forward mode, and particles leaving the Mediterranean Sea were tracked for a period of time determined with respect to the length of the extreme event. The top 100 extreme events in the ranking with durations of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 days were analysed, and it was revealed that most of these events occurred in the winter. For extreme precipitation, positive anomalies of moisture support from the Mediterranean were found to be in the order of 80% or more, but this support reached 100% in summer and spring. The results show that extreme precipitation events with longer durations are more influenced by the extreme Mediterranean anomalous moisture supply than those with shorter lengths. However, it is during shorter events when the Mediterranean Sea contributes higher amounts of moisture compared with its climatological mean values; for longer events, this contribution decreases progressively (but still doubles the climatological moisture contribution from the Mediterranean Sea). Finally, this analysis provides evidence that the optimum time period for accumulated moisture to be modelled by the Lagrangian model is that for which the extreme event is estimated. In future studies, this fine characterisation could assist in modelling moisture contributions from sources in relation to individual extreme events.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Contribution of Moisture from Mediterranean Sea to Extreme Precipitation Events over Danube River Basin

Ciric

Nieto

Ramos

et al. 2018

Water

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“…It is noteworthy that an upwind shift in intense precipitation in response to warmer SSTs was simulated in previous studies with different meteorological situations (Cassola et al, ; Ivatek‐Šahdan et al, ). The displaced tracks of synoptic low‐pressure systems in response to SST differences can also cause a large difference in the associated precipitation extremes (Senatore et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…Previous studies have also documented that SST differences can shift geographical locations of severe precipitation. For example, Ivatek‐Šahdan et al () examined the impact of SST on heavy rainfall events around the eastern Adriatic Sea. From the warmer sea surface, the atmosphere gains more moisture and subsequently triggering more convective precipitation over the sea.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Midlatitude Heavy Precipitation to SST: A Case Study in the Sea of Japan Area on 9 August 2013

Iizuka

Nakamura

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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This study investigates the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Sea of Japan on a heavy precipitation event that occurred over the northern part (Northern Tohoku region) of Japan's largest island on 9 August 2013. Sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that warmer (cooler) SSTs prescribed over the Sea of Japan in the simulations lead to an increase (decrease) in 24‐hr precipitation averaged within the Northern Tohoku region, especially on the Sea of Japan (i.e., windward) side. Though no significant relationship is found between the local maxima and SSTs over the Sea of Japan, those SST values over the Sea of Japan affect the evolution of the intense convective precipitation; higher (lower) SSTs act to shift the location of intense precipitation on the upwind (downwind) side in the present event. The different evolution results in a different interaction with the downstream orography, leading to no significant relationship between the local maxima of intense precipitation and SSTs. The differences arise from the sensitivity of convective updraft to SSTs. The simulations thus suggest that uncertainties in currently available SST products may alter both the area‐averaged precipitation and the geographical locations of intense precipitation, which can potentially impact flash flood and landslide warnings.

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“…Lebeaupin et al (2006) found that higher-resolution SST fields have poor effects on convection in the case study they analysed (southern France). Ivatek-Šahdan et al (2018), examining several events in the eastern Adriatic, also found that more realistic SST fields did not substantially improve precipitation estimates; furthermore, they showed that the impact of high-resolution SST varied in different cases. Conversely, Katsafados et al (2011) found noticeable deviations among the forecast skills of simulations with SST boundary conditions at different resolutions in a test case in the eastern Mediterranean, whereas Cassola et al (2016) verified that high-resolution SST fields can positively impact QPF in the forecasting range of 36-48 h in a study in north-western Italy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Impact of high-resolution sea surface temperature representation on the forecast of small Mediterranean catchments' hydrological responses to heavy precipitation

Senatore

Furnari

Mendicino

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Operational meteo-hydrological forecasting chains are affected by many sources of uncertainty. In coastal areas characterized by complex topography, with several medium-to-small size catchments, quantitative precipitation forecast becomes even more challenging due to the interaction of intense air–sea exchanges with coastal orography. For such areas, which are quite common in the Mediterranean Basin, improved representation of sea surface temperature (SST) space–time patterns can be particularly important. The paper focuses on the relative impact of different resolutions of SST representation on regional operational forecasting chains (up to river discharge estimates) over coastal Mediterranean catchments, with respect to two other fundamental options while setting up the system, i.e. the choice of the forcing general circulation model (GCM) and the possible use of a three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var) scheme. Two different kinds of severe hydro-meteorological events that affected the Calabria region (southern Italy) in 2015 are analysed using the WRF-Hydro atmosphere–hydrology modelling system in its uncoupled version. Both of the events are modelled using the 0.25∘ resolution global forecasting system (GFS) and the 16 km resolution integrated forecasting system (IFS) initial and lateral atmospheric boundary conditions, which are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), applying the WRF mesoscale model for the dynamical downscaling. For the IFS-driven forecasts, the effects of the 3D-Var scheme are also analysed. Finally, native initial and lower boundary SST data are replaced with data from the Medspiration project by Institut Français de Recherche pour L'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)/Centre European Remote Sensing d'Archivage et de Traitement (CERSAT), which have a 24 h time resolution and a 2.2 km spatial resolution. Precipitation estimates are compared with both ground-based and radar data, as well as discharge estimates with stream gauging stations' data. Overall, the experiments highlight that the added value of high-resolution SST representation can be hidden by other more relevant sources of uncertainty, especially the choice of the general circulation model providing the boundary conditions. Nevertheless, in most cases, high-resolution SST fields show a non-negligible impact on the simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer processes, modifying flow dynamics and/or the amount of precipitated water; thus, this emphasizes the fact that uncertainty in SST representation should be duly taken into account in operational forecasting in coastal areas.

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Impact of SST on heavy rainfall events on eastern Adriatic during SOP1 of HyMeX

Cited by 12 publications

References 73 publications

Contribution of Moisture from Mediterranean Sea to Extreme Precipitation Events over Danube River Basin

Contribution of Moisture from Mediterranean Sea to Extreme Precipitation Events over Danube River Basin

Sensitivity of Midlatitude Heavy Precipitation to SST: A Case Study in the Sea of Japan Area on 9 August 2013

Impact of high-resolution sea surface temperature representation on the forecast of small Mediterranean catchments' hydrological responses to heavy precipitation

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