Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Prices

Abstract

Because of the civil war in Syria, refugees immigrated into Turkey between May 2011 and December 2012. We analyse the impact of this phenomenon on prices by searching for endogenous structural breaks. Our method differs from difference-in-differences models where an a priori explicit break date is imposed. Although immigration could lead to higher demand, thus higher prices, at least initially, in immigration regions, it results in arbitrage between regions, eliminating the initial price impact. Our findings suggest that the impact of Syrian immigration on Turkish prices is moderate and does not display a substantial difference between control and treatment regions.

A New Method for Calculating Consumer Price Indices: Incorporating Consumer Perceptions and Attitudes with Item Response Theory

“…Kliesen (2021) used the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) is an alternative measure of inflation that covers a broader range of goods and services than the CPI. The chain-weighted CPI takes into account changes in consumer behaviour over time and is considered by some economists to be a more accurate measure of inflation, such as (Genc et al, 2022). The Experimental Price Index for Underlying Inflation is a measure of inflation that excludes goods and services with volatile prices, such as food and energy (Abe & Shinozaki, 2018).…”

“…The PCEPI may overstate inflation in times of rapid technological change, as Kliesen (2021) has shown. The chain-weighted CPI may underestimate inflation during periods of significant price change (Genc et al, 2022). The EPI may not capture price changes in goods and services that are excluded from measurement (Hersugondo et al, 2022).…”