Impact of Terrorism on Investment Decisions of Farmers

Abstract

This article provides evidence for a particular channel through which sustained terrorism in rural areas may affect growth in developing countries. Using micro-level data from agricultural surveys during the period of insurgency in Punjab (India), I find significant negative effects of terrorism on the level of investment in long-term agricultural technology, but effects are small and insignificant for short-term investment. The presence of a major terrorist incident in a district in a year reduces long-term fixed investment by around 17 percent after controlling for district fixed-effects, time trends, district trends, and other farm-level controls. These negative effects are greater for richer farmers and those living in bordering districts. This results in a farmer losing close to 4 percent of his income annually because of the insurgency.In the past few years, there has been a growing interest in the micro-level approach to studying consequences of violent conflict. The empirical literature that was earlier limited to cross-sectional results has now taken strides into case studies and

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