Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Free, Christopher M.; Anderson, Sean C.; Hellmers, Elizabeth A.; Muhling, Barbara A.; Navarro, Michael O.; Richerson, Kate; Rogers, Lauren A.; Satterthwaite, William H.; Thompson, Andrew R.; Burt, Jenn M.; Gaines, Steven D.; Marshall, Kristin N.; White, J. Wilson; Bellquist, Lyall

doi:10.1111/faf.12753

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 166 publications

(227 reference statements)

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“…With mortality events occurring with only 3 years in between, our model predicts a likely strong reduction in population biomass (Figure 2). However, we note that MHWs may often simultaneously affect multiple life stages, such as the increased early life and adult mortality in fish associated with the MHW in the North Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016 (Free et al, 2023). We did not include such considerations here, but the probability of collapse will typically increase with additional mortality in adult life stages (White et al, 2022).…”

Section: Related Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are increasing with anthropogenically caused climate change (Field et al., 2012; Laufkötter et al., 2020). For instance, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported more frequently over the last century with increasing intensity and duration (Free et al., 2023; Laufkötter et al., 2020; Oliver et al., 2018; Smith et al., 2023; White et al., 2023). Such extreme climatic events often cause extreme ecological events such as mass mortality events that rapidly remove a large proportion of individuals from many demographic classes over a relatively short period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

The frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are increasing with anthropogenically caused climate change (Field et al, 2012;Laufkötter et al, 2020). For instance, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported more frequently over the last century with increasing intensity and duration (Free et al, 2023;

…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Langangen,

Durant

2024

Global Change Biology

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Over the last decades, mass mortality events have become increasingly common across taxa with sometimes devastating effects on population biomass. In the aquatic environment, fish are sensitive to mass mortality events, particularly at the early life stages that are crucial for population dynamics. However, it has recently been shown for fish, that a single mass mortality event in early life typically does not lead to population collapse. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of extreme events that can cause mass mortality, such as marine heatwaves, are increasing. Here, we show that increasing frequency and intensity of mass mortality events may lead to population collapse. Since the drivers of mass mortality events are diverse, and often linked to climate change, it is challenging to predict the frequency and severity of future mass mortality events. As an alternative, we quantify the probability of population collapse depending on the frequency and intensity as well as the duration of mass mortality events. Based on 39 fish species, we show that the probability of collapse typically increases with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of the mortality events. In addition, we show that the collapse depends on key traits such as natural mortality, recruitment variation, and density dependence. The presented framework provides quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of fish species to these increasingly common extreme events, which paves the way for potential mitigation actions to alleviate adverse impacts on harvested fish populations across the globe.

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Section: Related Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Langangen,

Durant

2024

Global Change Biology

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“…2014-2016, impacting many anadromous salmonid populations (Di Lorenzo & Mantua, 2016;Free et al, 2023). Sudden relief of the drought in 2017 coincided with higher proportions of age-two spawners across all programs (Herbold et al, 2018), seen most dramatically in the coastal-lineage steelhead at NH, where age-three spawners are typically the most abundant.…”

Section: Environmental Influencementioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic parentage reveals the (un)natural history of Central Valley hatchery steelhead

Goetz,

Nuetzel,

Vendrami

et al. 2024

Evolutionary Applications

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Populations composed of individuals descended from multiple distinct genetic lineages often feature significant differences in phenotypic frequencies. We considered hatchery production of steelhead, the migratory anadromous form of the salmonid species Oncorhynchus mykiss, and investigated how differences among genetic lineages and environmental variation impacted life history traits. We genotyped 23,670 steelhead returning to the four California Central Valley hatcheries over 9 years from 2011 to 2019, confidently assigning parentage to 13,576 individuals to determine age and date of spawning and rates of iteroparity and repeat spawning within each year. We found steelhead from different genetic lineages showed significant differences in adult life history traits despite inhabiting similar environments. Differences between coastal and Central Valley steelhead lineages contributed to significant differences in age at return, timing of spawning, and rates of iteroparity among programs. In addition, adaptive genomic variation associated with life history development in this species varied among hatchery programs and was associated with the age of steelhead spawners only in the coastal lineage population. Environmental variation likely contributed to variations in phenotypic patterns observed over time, as our study period spanned both a marine heatwave and a serious drought in California. Our results highlight evidence of a strong genetic component underlying known phenotypic differences in life history traits between two steelhead lineages.

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“…Shortbelly rockfish have expanded northward as populations exploded in recent years due to multiple high recruitment classes [22,23]. As a result many shortbelly rockfishes were taken as bycatch by the Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) fishery off the Oregon coast, which threatened to prematurely shut down the hake fishery [24]. This highlights the need to understand the mechanism(s) driving fishery recruitment dynamics, which remains a fundamental issue in fisheries science despite over a century of research [1,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trophic Efficiency Facilitates Larval Shortbelly Rockfish (Sebastes jordani) Development

Kwan,

Walsh,

Thompson

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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Identifying the factors influencing fish recruitment is critical for fishery management, and failure to do so can have major ecological and economic consequences. Many hypotheses over the past century have been proposed, and the recently postulated Trophic Efficiency in Early Life (TEEL) hypothesis argues that a shorter food chain length can result in more efficient energy transfer from primary producers to young fishes, thereby increasing growth rate and larval condition, reducing early-life mortality and ultimately leading to a stronger recruitment cohort. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the trophic position (TP) through compound-specific isotopic analysis of amino acids, as well as otolith microstructure and stomach content of larval shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani). Results show larval rockfish that ate lower TP prey were both heavier and faster growing. This suggests the trophic characteristics of early life diet are critical to larval survival, and provide evidence in support of the TEEL hypothesis.

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Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Cited by 31 publications

References 166 publications

Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Genetic parentage reveals the (un)natural history of Central Valley hatchery steelhead

Trophic Efficiency Facilitates Larval Shortbelly Rockfish (Sebastes jordani) Development

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