Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Business Cycle in the Visegrad Group

Abstract

The aim of the research was to analyse morphological changes in the Visegrad Group business cycles before and after the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, and to provide comparison of their overall economic performance in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate changes and price stability. Research Design & Methods: Visegrad Group's business cycles were determined by employing Hodrick and Prescott filter to extract cyclical fluctuations, while Bry and Boschan algorithm was applied to identify the turning points of the cycles. Morphological features of business cycles were examined. The analysis was supplemented by examining unemployment rate and price stability. Findings: The financial crisis resulted in the drop of the GDP growth and a periodical increase in unemployment. Nevertheless, in the 20 analysed years the unemployment rate tends to attain lower values, while prices become more stable. The last two economic cycles resulted in post-crisis rebound of the GDP growth. At the same time, the performance of the countries (except for outperforming Poland) becomes more and more correlated. Implications & Recommendations: The Visegrad Group was affected by the crisis and it is plausible that any future disturbances in the world economy might affect it again. Further research aiming at deeper understanding of how a particular country was affected could help mitigate a negative impact of future crises. Contribution & Value Added: The article helps to understand how the crisis affected the V4 economies in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate and price stability. It indicates how the economic aggregates behaved before and after the crash.

Analysis of Key Macroeconomic Indicators and Their Relationship to Unemployment in the Czech Republic

“…The results of other studies (Mura et al, 2020;Pawęta, 2018) indicate a weak relationship between unemployment and real GDP in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. Pawęta (2018) highlights that the crisis had a delayed impact on the V4 economies.…”

“…The results of other studies (Mura et al, 2020;Pawęta, 2018) indicate a weak relationship between unemployment and real GDP in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. Pawęta (2018) highlights that the crisis had a delayed impact on the V4 economies. Their research findings suggest that the post-crisis period influenced the economies and labour markets of the V4 countries.…”

“…It is also necessary to examine the impacts of the current economic situation on the development of unemployment and other macroeconomic indicators. Due to the time lag emphasized by researchers such as (CNB, 2023), Mura et al (2020) and Pawęta (2018), it is essential to reanalyze this period with a time interval in mind.…”

Konjonktür Dalgalarinin Beli̇rleyi̇ci̇leri̇: G7 Ve E7 Ülkeleri̇ Üzeri̇ne Karşilaştirmali Bi̇r Anali̇z

“…Bu çalışmada literatürde (Blackburn & Ravn, 1992;Chebbi vd., 2014;Chistè & van Vuuren, 2014;Danthine & Donaldson, 1993;Dickerson vd., 1998;Fiorito & Kollintzas, 1994;Konstantakopoulou & Tsionas, 2014;Montoya & de Haan, 2008;Pawęta, 2018) ve çeşitli uluslararası kuruluşlar (European Commission, 2003;IMF, 2008IMF, , 2015OECD, 2011) tarafından konjonktür dalgalarını elde etmek ve hasıla açığını hesaplamak için sıklıkla kullanılması ve karşılaştırma yapma imkânı sağlaması nedeniyle Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtresi kullanılmıştır. HP filtresinin konjonktür dalgaları elde etmede oldukça güvenilir bir yöntem olduğu farklı çalışmalarda (Artis & Zhang, 1997;Dickerson vd., 1998)…”

Okun’s law in an emerging country: An empirical analysis in Indonesia

“…Economic growth and employment are the two important macroeconomic variables (Bande & Martın-RoMan, 2017;Blázquez-Fernández, Cantarero-Prieto, & Pascual-Sáez, 2018;Rahman & Mustafa, 2017;Soylu, Çakmak, & Okur, 2018;Pawęta, 2018). Therefore, successful development will be seen from the maintenance of economic growth and job availability for society.…”