Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on Black Sea trade: Geoeconomic challenges

Abstract

This paper investigates the strategic importance of the Black Sea region in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Focusing on trade dynamics, geopolitical actors, and regional cooperation, the study analyzes the region's transformation and the resulting implications for global trade. The paper examines how the conflict has redefined trade relationships among Black Sea nations and major powers. For this purpose, trend models are evaluated for three-time samples for the export and import of products of 7 countries of the Black Sea Basin in both nominal and relative dimensions. In total, the evaluation and analysis encompass 1764 econometric models. Noteworthy trends include the evolving roles of the EU, the Middle East, and Russia, the potential resurgence of Ukraine, and Turkey's mediating role. The post-conflict landscape could witness heightened Western influence and continued Chinese engagement.