Impact of Vaccine and Immunity Passports in the Context of COVID-19: A Time Series Analysis in Overseas France

Abstract

(1) Background: By summer 2021, overseas France turned COVID-19 vaccine and immunity certificates into passports to open travel bubbles. Subsequently, its territories set French records for both COVID-19 and 6-month excess all-cause mortality. (2) Methods: Official time series were collected to compare time correlations between air traffic and COVID-19 transmission and mortality in overseas France, before and after the implementation of immunity passports. (3) Results: Air traffic initially had a reversed relationship with COVID-19, which transitioned into a leader–follower relationship with the introduction of immunity passports. Essentially, air traffic increased 16 days before COVID-19 cases increased (r = 0.61) and 26 days before deaths increased (r = 0.31) in Martinique, 26 days (r = 0.72) and 40 days (r = 0.82) before in Guadeloupe, and 29 days (r = 0.60) and 31 days (r = 0.41) before in Réunion upon introduction of immunity passports. Moreover, air traffic became as correlated as community transmission to COVID-19 mortality in Guadeloupe. (4) Conclusions: Since the introduction of immunity passports, air traffic has been pacesetting COVID-19 within one month for transmission, and within an additional two weeks for mortality in overseas France. Responding to WHO’s call for real-world evidence, this study suggests that COVID-19 passports are not commensurate with health system goals.

Challenges of balancing international health and travel in a pandemic: Lessons from the French Caribbean during COVID-19 passports

“…The travel and tourism sector benefited greatly from the relaxation of restrictions during the pandemic, yet its impact on health systems remains inadequately addressed. 1 This is partly because of conflicts of interest over the COVID-19 vaccine policies. 2 , 3 …”

“…4 However, vaccine passports were pushed onto the international agenda by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) in the wake of the marketing authorisation of COVID-19 vaccines, when “recognizing the urgent need to restart tourism in view of the summer tourist season in the Northern Hemisphere” in May 2021 5 – i.e., to deregulate travel-related control measures. 1 …”

“…COVID-19 outbreaks are temporary in nature but are currently cadenced by holiday seasons in the French Caribbean. 1 Lifting travel-related control measures should always account for the local context in a pandemic, which encompasses real-world ethical considerations and scientific evidence 4 from cross-sectoral routine surveillance. 1 …”

“… 1 Lifting travel-related control measures should always account for the local context in a pandemic, which encompasses real-world ethical considerations and scientific evidence 4 from cross-sectoral routine surveillance. 1 …”

“…Only 16% of the French Caribbean population received their first dose of the vaccine upon the implementation of this “travel bubble” policy. 1 …”