Impact of vortex size and Initialization on prediction of landfalling tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Busireddy, Nanda Kishore Reddy; Nadimpalli, Raghu; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ankur, Kumar; Mohanty, U. C.; Niyogi, Dev

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.014

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The TC samples from the current dataset are clustered into slow movers (TS ≤ 3 m⋅s −1 ), normal movers (4 ≤ TS ≤ 7 m⋅s −1 ) and fast movers (TS > 7 m⋅s −1 ) following Chan and Gray (), for rainfall distribution over the NIO region (Figure ). Initial analyses and recent studies indicate that slow and normal moving TCs are stronger as compared to the fast movers (Mei et al ., ; Busireddy et al ., ; ). The mean intensity of the slow, normal and fast‐moving TCs are 34, 31, and 29 knots, respectively (figure 5b of Busireddy et al ., ; ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Initial analyses and recent studies indicate that slow and normal moving TCs are stronger as compared to the fast movers (Mei et al ., ; Busireddy et al ., ; ). The mean intensity of the slow, normal and fast‐moving TCs are 34, 31, and 29 knots, respectively (figure 5b of Busireddy et al ., ; ). The peak rain rates are higher for the BoB as that of AS TCs for any translation speed.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the relationship between intensity changes and rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Ankur

Busireddy

Osuri

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rain estimates the relationship between rainfall and intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) based on 71 TCs during 1997–2017 is investigated. The axisymmetric analyses revealed that climatologically the Bay of Bengal (BoB) TCs produce extremely heavy rainfall (~9–10 mm⋅hr−1) and Arabian Sea TCs produce very heavy rainfall (~7–8 mm⋅hr−1) in the storm inner core region (0–100 km). The inner‐core region receives three times higher rainfall than the outer region (100–300 km). The left‐forward sector experiences the maximum rainfall for any TC intensity over the NIO basin. A significant increase (decrease) in the rain rate is seen during normal to rapid intensification (weakening) phase. A notable decrease in rainfall of ~4.3 mm⋅hr−1 is observed for the rapidly weakening TCs. Slow‐moving TCs are generally stronger and produce heavy rainfall (2–4 mm⋅hr−1) up to ~300 km storm radius. As the translation speed increases, rainfall gradually shifts from rear to the forward sector of the TC. The asymmetry (wavenumber‐1) in TC rainfall structures revealed that rainfall maximum is located in the left‐forward sector for almost all intensity stages. The amplitude of wave number‐1 asymmetry in TC rainfall shows cyclonic shift as the TC intensity increases and is particularly prevalent in the BoB region. These analyses would be helpful as a baseline for evaluating the performance of numerical models and to identify the vulnerable areas for TC heavy rainfall.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the relationship between intensity changes and rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Ankur

Busireddy

Osuri

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…With the advancements in the dense observational network such as in-situ, satellite, radar, and other remote sensed platforms, the TC movement's prediction accuracy has been improved from the last few decades [12]. Significant improvements have been achieved in the prediction of the track of TC since the previous few years due to the advancements in numerical weather prediction models and data assimilation techniques over the NIO basin [6,7,18,20,21,23], 2015, 2017, [14][15][16], Mohanty et al, 2015Mohanty et al, ,2019, [2]. However, the intensity prediction is still a challenging task for the operational and research community due to their intensity changes such as rapid intensification (RI) 1 and rapid decay (RD) 2 over the basin [11,26], [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies have addressed the improving prediction of intensity changes through various methods such as the use of high-resolution modeling systems [1,3,6,22], vortex in Bhalachandran itialization [2], data assimilation [16,19]. However, these studies are mostly limited to the individual TCs or very few cases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the characteristics of rapid intensity changes of Tropical Cyclones over North Indian Ocean

et al. 2021

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North Indian Ocean (NIO), which comprises of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) basins, is one of the highly potential regions for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the world. Significant improvements have been achieved in the prediction of the movement of TCs, since the last decade. However, the prediction of sudden intensity changes becomes a challenging task for the research and operational meteorologists. Hence, the present study focuses on finding the climatological characteristics of such intensity changes over NIO regions. Rapid Intensification (RI) is defined as the 24-h maximum sustained surface wind speed rate equal to 30 knots (15.4 ms−1). The results suggest that the TCs formed over the NIO basin are both seasonal and basin sensitive. Since 2000, a significant trend is observed in RI TCs over the basin. At least one among three cyclones getting intensified is of RI category. More number of RI cases have been identified in the BoB basin than the AS. The post-monsoon season holds more RI and rapid decay cases, with 63% and 90% contribution. Most of the TCs are attaining RI onset in their initial stage. Further, India is receiving more landfalling RI TCs, followed by Bangladesh and Oman. The east coast of India, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are the most vulnerable states to these RI TCs. The cyclogenesis locations associated with RI cases hold higher moisture, and sea surface temperature as compared to the Non-RI cases.

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On occurrence of rapid intensification and rainfall changes in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Vinodhkumar

Busireddy

Ankur

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The present study examines the climatological characteristics and possible triggers of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1990–2019 over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). RI is defined as an increase in maximum sustained surface wind speed of 30 knots (15.4 m⋅s−1) or more in a 24 hr duration. In the NIO basin, the threshold of 24 hr intensity change represents the 93rd percentile using a 3‐min sustained wind, while, it is 95th percentile in the Atlantic basin, where 1‐min sustained wind is used. A total of 46 TCs (~38% of the total TCs) have exhibited RI at an average rate of 1–2 TCs year−1 over the NIO. A significant increase of RI‐TCs is seen from the year 2000 onwards over the region. The maximum RI‐TCs occurrence is found in the post‐monsoon season. The majority of TCs (~48%) undergo the RI phase within a 12–24 hr time during the depression stage. About ~35% (26%) of the TCs are retained in the RI phase for the duration of at least 24 hr (36 hr). Most of the RI‐TCs move northwestward (38%) and westward (31%) direction 6 hr before the RI onset with slow/normal translation speeds. During the RI phase, ~72% of TCs travels a distance of ~150–450 km. The TC inner‐core region receives heavy rainfall, and a ~ 3 mm⋅hr−1 increment is noticed 12 hr before the RI to the RI onset. Most of the RI‐TCs made landfall over eastern states of India showing the vulnerability of the regions. Composite analysis demonstrated that higher precipitable water (~55 mm), surface flux (500 W⋅m−2), cyclone heat potential (50–60 kJ⋅cm−2) in the moderate shear (6–8 m⋅s−1) environment favours the RI process. This study highlights the significance of RI‐TCs and triggering conditions for the RI onset over the NIO region.

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Impact of vortex size and Initialization on prediction of landfalling tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Cited by 14 publications

References 36 publications

On the relationship between intensity changes and rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

On the relationship between intensity changes and rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Understanding the characteristics of rapid intensity changes of Tropical Cyclones over North Indian Ocean

On occurrence of rapid intensification and rainfall changes in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

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