Impacts in ports on a tectonically active coast for climate-driven projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario: 7 Chilean ports under scrutiny

Winckler, Patricio; Esparza, César; Mora, Javiera; Melo, Óscar; Bambach, Nicolás; Contreras-López, Manuel; Sactic, María Isabel

doi:10.1080/21664250.2022.2088194

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Though the relatively low probability of occurrence of these events [51] within the analyzed projection (2026-2045) is minor, they should not be disregarded a priori. Along this line, efforts to combine both coseismic seafloor changes and coastal flooding to compute wave overtopping [31] or to explain the role of such changes in shoreline erosion along the Chilean coasts [52] have already been achieved (note that, similarly to the flood level used herein, wave overtopping and shoreline erosion also depend on the tide, storm surge, waves, and sea level rise). The complex interaction between climate-driven changes in oceanographic variables and those associated to the tectonic nature of subduction zones should be addressed in future studies following, for example, the novel approaches of Sepulveda et al [53,54] in combination with projections of urban growth of cities.…”

Section: Limitations On Th Estimation Of the Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities

et al. 2023

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This study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.

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Section: Limitations On Th Estimation Of the Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ocean bottom was modelled with a spatial resolution of 1 • using ETOPO2v2's bathymetry [29] in combination with a coastline from the GHHSGVIII database [30]. Details of the model parametrization are included in [31], and it has shown a good performance off Chile's coasts [32].…”

Section: Computation Of the Flooding Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities

et al. 2023

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Climate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment

Winckler,

Farías,

Vicuña

et al. 2024

Regional Studies in Marine Science

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Estudios sobre el costo del impacto por el incremento en el nivel del mar en los puertos y las metodologías empleadas para su cálculo: una revisión sistemática

Rodríguez-Aguilar,

Garza-Lagler,

Fernández-Díaz

2024

CienciaUAT

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Los puertos son esenciales para el crecimiento económico de un país por sus actividades comerciales y la creación de empleos, sin embargo, debido a su ubicación geográfica son vulnerables a inundaciones, con un mayor impacto en los últimos años, derivado del derretimiento de las capas de hielo de los glaciares y el aumento de la temperatura en los océanos, que son los principales efectos asociados al cambio climático que han contribuido al incremento en el nivel del mar (INM). El objetivo del presente trabajo fue identificar y caracterizar las metodologías empleadas, a nivel mundial, para calcular los costos por el INM en los puertos con la finalidad de ofrecer una aproximación de las propuestas metodológicas existentes para abordar este importante efecto del cambio climático. Para el desarrollo del trabajo, se dio seguimiento al listado sugerido en el Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), además se procedió con un análisis de contenido. Los costos que se estimaron en los estudios variaron significativamente desde unos millones hasta miles de millones de dólares, siendo en su mayoría acciones de adaptación, seguidas de los aspectos económicos, rentabilidad y relación costo-beneficio. Es conveniente transitar de estrategias aisladas y particulares a una propuesta metodológica global y estandarizada que permita afrontar el riesgo de inundación que se considere posiblemente inevitable ante los efectos del cambio climático. La operatividad de los puertos frente al INM dependerá en gran medida de una adecuada estimación de inversión necesaria para afrontarla, mediante proyecciones climáticas estandarizadas, evaluando de forma global el costo que implica, para garantizar que la inversión en infraestructuras portuarias sea eficaz.

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Impacts in ports on a tectonically active coast for climate-driven projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario: 7 Chilean ports under scrutiny

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities

Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities

Climate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment

Estudios sobre el costo del impacto por el incremento en el nivel del mar en los puertos y las metodologías empleadas para su cálculo: una revisión sistemática

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