Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming on Net Primary Productivity and Carbon Balance in China’s Terrestrial Ecosystems

Li, Yu; Gu, Fangyi; Huang, Mei; Tao, Bo; Hao, Ming; Wang, Zhaosheng

doi:10.3390/su12072849

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Thus the increase in respiration caused by the warming in the long-term (around 4℃, Figure 11a) was projected to exceed the increase in photosynthesis, which was mani-fested as a significant negative correlation between temperature increase and NPP changes (Figure 11d). Similar to our results, Yu et al (2020) suggested that moderate warming (1.5℃) under the RCP4.5 scenario would be beneficial to the increase in NPP, but further warming (2℃) may lead to a decrease in NPP. Therefore it is necessary to prepare for the management and adaptation of the climate change risk faced by the ecosystem, though a moderate climate change may have a positive influence.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Yin

Deng

et al. 2021

J. Geogr. Sci.

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Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period (2041-2070) to the long-term period (2071-2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071-2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach -96.00±46.95 gC•m -2 •a -1 , and the rate of change of the NPP would reach -3.56±3.40 gC•m -2 •a -1 . The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Yin

Deng

et al. 2021

J. Geogr. Sci.

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“…Temperature is an important limiting factor of productivity dynamics in mid-latitude steppe ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere [41,42]. Our study shows that there was a negative correlation between temperature and NPP in both grass-and shrub-dominated biomes during the growing season.…”

Section: Npp Dynamics and Main Driving Processesmentioning

confidence: 59%

Assessing the Net Primary Productivity Dynamics of the Desert Steppe in Northern China during the Past 20 Years and Its Response to Climate Change

Yang¹,

Li²,

Xian³

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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The net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are critical for regional carbon management. Our study applied a light-utilization-efficiency model (CASA: Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach) to evaluate the vegetation NPP dynamics of a desert steppe in northern China over the past 20 years, and its response to climate change. Our results show that the annual average NPP of the desert steppe was 132 g C m−2 y−1, of which the grass- and shrub-dominated biome values were 142 and 91 g C m−2 y−1, respectively. The average change rate of NPP was 1.13 g C m−2 y−1, and in the grassland biome 1.31 g C m−2 y−1, a value which was significantly higher than that in shrubland, at 0.84 g C m−2 y−1. The precipitation and temperature at different time scales in the desert steppe showed a slow upward trend, and the degree of aridity tended to weaken. The correlation analysis shows that NPP changes were significantly positively and negatively correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively. In terms of temperature, 43% of the area was significantly correlated during the growing season, which decreased to 12% on the annual scale. In 31% of the changed areas, the average NPP was 148.1 g C m−2 y−1, which was higher than the remaining significant areas. This suggests that higher NPP levels help to attenuate the negative effects of high temperature during the growing season on plant productivity in the desert steppe. This improves the understanding of the carbon cycle mechanism of arid and semi-arid ecosystems, which is beneficial to improving sustainable grassland development strategies.

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“…The PLUS model is developed by Liang et al of China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) [30]. Studies have shown that the PLUS model has the ability to simulate the patchlevel evolution of land use landscapes [26,48,49]. In order to enhance the dependability of LULC simulation, the driving factors, LULC transfer rule, neighborhood weights, and space restriction, were set in the PLUS model.…”

Section: Lulc Spatial Simulation By Plusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

et al. 2022

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In considering regional sustainable development, optimizing the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC) and improving terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) have emerged as major concerns. In this study, considering the synergistic effect between LULC and CS, a coupling model (named MPI) that integrates Multi-objective Optimization (MOP) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, was proposed to simulate the 2030 CS and explore its spatial-temporal characteristics in a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH). The MPI model, which combines the advantages of the above three models, can optimize the LULC structure, simulate the LULC distribution, and efficiently extract CS variation. The results indicated that: (1) LULC changes in BTH were mostly represented in transfers between cropland, forest, and grassland; (2) three different scenarios were simulated using the MPI model, named BAU (Business as usual), EDP (Ecological development priority), and EEB (Ecological and economic balanced). The simulation results of the three scenarios are in line with their respective goals, and the results are quite different; (3) cropland, water, and bare land, will be reduced, and the constant shrinking of water is a pressing issue that must be addressed; and (4) the EEB scenario balanced ecological services and economic rewards, increased the ecosystem carbon sink function, and is an efficient way to investigate “carbon neutrality”. The application of the MPI model is of reference value for exploring the optimal configuration of land resources.

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Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming on Net Primary Productivity and Carbon Balance in China’s Terrestrial Ecosystems

Cited by 14 publications

References 56 publications

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Assessing the Net Primary Productivity Dynamics of the Desert Steppe in Northern China during the Past 20 Years and Its Response to Climate Change

Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

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