Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and Insurance

Franzke, Christian

doi:10.1007/s41885-017-0004-3

Cited by 29 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…This is a serious research gap because such events cause enormous damages 10 . For addressing it, sectoral impact models must be able to credibly represent the impacts of extreme events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

et al. 2019

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Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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“…This is a serious research gap because such events cause enormous damages 10 . For addressing it, sectoral impact models must be able to credibly represent the impacts of extreme events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

et al. 2019

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“…In recent years, the concept of compound extremes, also extended to include multi‐risks, has attracted the attention of the scientific community (e.g., Kappes et al ., ; Liu et al ., ; Vahedifard et al ., ; Gill and Malamud, ; ; AghaKouchak et al ., ; Collet et al ., ; Terzi et al ., ). These extremes have potentially major implications for a wide range of private and public stakeholders including policy makers, (re)insurance companies, governments and local communities around the world (e.g., Fuchs et al ., ; Franzke, ). Identifying compound extremes and quantifying their observed (De Luca et al ., ; ; Ward et al ., ; Couasnon et al ., ) and future projected (Zscheischler and Seneviratne, ; Ben‐Ari et al, ) spatio‐temporal characteristics is thus a highly scientifically and socio‐economically relevant goal, which supports disaster risk reduction through increased understanding of risks and enhancement of resilience (UNDRR, ; AghaKouchak et al ., ; Zscheischler et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Luca

Messori

Pons

et al. 2020

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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We propose a novel approach to the study of compound extremes, grounded in dynamical systems theory. Specifically, we present the co‐recurrence ratio (α), which elucidates the dependence structure between variables by quantifying their joint recurrences. This approach is applied to daily climate extremes, derived from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis over the 1979–2018 period. The analysis focuses on concurrent (i.e., same‐day) wet (total precipitation) and windy (10 m wind gusts) extremes in Europe and concurrent cold (2 m temperature) extremes in Eastern North America and wet extremes in Europe. Results for wet and windy extremes in Europe, which we use as a test‐bed for our methodology, show that α peaks during boreal winter. High α values correspond to wet and windy extremes in northwestern Europe, and to large‐scale conditions resembling the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This confirms earlier findings which link the positive NAO to a heightened frequency of extratropical cyclones impacting northwestern Europe. For the Eastern North America–Europe case, α extremes once again reflect concurrent climate extremes – in this case cold extremes over North America and wet extremes over Europe. Our analysis provides detailed spatial information on regional hotspots for these compound extreme occurrences, and encapsulates information on their spatial footprint which is typically not included in a conventional co‐occurrence analysis. We conclude that α successfully characterises compound extremes by reflecting the evolution of the associated meteorological maps. This approach is entirely general, and may be applied to different types of compound extremes and geographical regions.

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“…Future climate simulations project that these extremes will become more frequent and intense (Field et al 2012(Field et al , 2014Stocker et al 2013;Franzke 2017) and will likely increase the number of fatalities (Wang et al 2019). Best studied is probably the link between temperature and fatalities (e.g., Gasparrini et al 2015;Deschenes and Moretti 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability

Franzke¹,

Sentelles

2020

Climatic Change

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Weather and climate hazards cause too many fatalities each year. These weather and climate hazards are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Here, we use a disaster database to investigate continentally aggregated fatality data for trends. We also examine whether modes of climate variability affect the propensity of fatalities. Furthermore, we quantify fatality risk by computing effective return periods which depend on modes of climate variability. We find statistically significant increasing trends for heat waves and floods for worldwide aggregated data. Significant trends occur in the number of fatalities in Asia where fatalities due to heat waves and floods are increasing, while storm-related fatalities are decreasing. However, when normalized by population size, the trends are no longer significant. Furthermore, the number of fatalities can be well described probabilistically by an extreme value distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Based on the GPD, we evaluate covariates which affect the number of fatalities aggregated over all hazard types. For this purpose, we evaluate combinations of modes of climate variability and socio-economic indicators as covariates. We find no evidence for a significant direct impact from socio-economic indicators; however, we find significant evidence for the impact from modes of climate variability on the number of fatalities. The important modes of climate variability affecting the number of fatalities are tropical cyclone activity, modes of sea surface temperature and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This offers the potential of predictability of the number of fatalities given that most of these climate modes are predictable on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.

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Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and Insurance

Cited by 29 publications

References 76 publications

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability

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