Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions on Influenza in Southern China. Part I. Taking Shenzhen City for Example

Qin, Jun; Hong, Fang; Chen, Zhenghong; Hong-nan, Zhai; Li, Zhang; Chen, Xiaowen

doi:10.4236/ojap.2012.13008

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The results of cross wavelet analysis and GAM indicated there was a positive relationship between SO 2 and ILI cases, which was in accordance with the results of Hwang et al [34], but different from some previous studies [23, 32]. Some studies have found that the cause of the negative association between SO 2 and ILI is that the acidic environment influences virus survival and decreases virus transmission [36, 37]. In contrast, an experimental study demonstrated that inhalation of SO 2 at 26 mg/m 3 after influenza virus infection can raise the risk of pneumonia in mice [38].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China

Geng

et al. 2019

BMC Public Health

136

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Background There is valid evidence that air pollution is associated with respiratory disease. However, few studies have quantified the short-term effects of six air pollutants on influenza-like illness (ILI). This study explores the potential relationship between air pollutants and ILI in Jinan, China. Methods Daily data on the concentration of particulate matters < 2.5 μm (PM 2.5), particulate matters < 10 μm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) and ILI counts from 2016 to 2017 were retrieved. The wavelet coherence analysis and generalized poisson additive regression model were employed to qualify the relationship between air pollutants and ILI risk. The effects of air pollutants on different age groups were investigated. Results A total of 81,459 ILI counts were collected, and the average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, O3, CO, SO2 and NO2 were 67.8 μg/m3, 131.76 μg/ m3, 109.85 μg/ m3, 1133 μg/ m3, 33.06 μg/ m3 and 44.38 μg/ m3, respectively. A 10 μg/ m3 increase in concentration of PM2.5, PM10, CO at lag0 and SO2 at lag01, was positively associated with a 1.0137 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0083–1.0192), 1.0074 (95% CI: 1.0041–1.0107), 1.0288 (95% CI: 1.0127–1.0451), and 1.0008 (95% CI: 1.0003–1.0012) of the relative risk (RR) of ILI, respectively. While, O3 (lag5) was negatively associated with ILI (RR 0.9863; 95%CI: 0.9787–0.9939), and no significant association was observed with NO2, which can increase the incidence of ILI in the two-pollutant model. A short-term delayed impact of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 at lag02 and CO, O3 at lag05 was also observed. People aged 25–59, 5–14 and 0–4 were found to be significantly susceptible to PM2.5, PM10, CO; and all age groups were significantly susceptible to SO2; People aged ≥60 year, 5–14 and 0–4 were found to be significantly negative associations with O3. Conclusion Air pollutants, especially PM2.5, PM10, CO and SO2, can increase the risk of ILI in Jinan. The government should create regulatory policies to reduce the level of air pollutants and remind people to practice preventative and control measures to decrease the incidence of ILI on pollution days.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China

Geng

et al. 2019

BMC Public Health

136

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“…Exposure to PM 2.5 can decrease the function of alveolar macrophages and pulmonary tracheal cilia, and raise the susceptibility of individuals to viruses 30 . PM 10 may reduce ultraviolet radiation reaching the ground and cause the spread of influenza virus infection 31 . We found that PM 2.5 and PM 10 were significantly associated with influenza.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…30 PM 10 may reduce ultraviolet radiation reaching the ground and cause the spread of influenza virus infection. 31 We found that PM 2.5 and PM 10 were significantly associated with influenza. In our research, influenza virus was also correlated with NO 2 , which was consistent with the results of Huang in Nanjing.…”

Section: Influenza Virus Is a Common Pathogen Of Arti In Children Inmentioning

confidence: 60%

Epidemiology of influenza in hospitalized children with respiratory tract infection in Suzhou area from 2016 to 2019

Rao

Dong

Zhu

2020

Journal of Medical Virology

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Influenza is a contagious respiratory disease and risks public health in China, and it has caused wide public concern in recent years. Immunocompromised patients, such as children and elderly people, suffer more severe influenza complication and some extreme cases are even life threatening. To identify the influenza characteristics and its correlation with various climatic and environmental pollution factors, we collected the reported influenza epidemic of hospitalized children in Children's Hospital of Soochow University from 2016 to 2019. Our results show that the main influenza virus subtypes are A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/BV, and B/BY. We also identified the characteristics of the prevalent influenza virus subtypes in different months, seasons, years, and patients' age. Of all the influenza infected patients, the most susceptible groups are children over 3 to 5 years of age, and more cases are reported in winter than other seasons. We also found that influenza is also highly correlated with climatic and environmental pollution factors, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model is employed for the short‐term influenza prediction in Suzhou city, which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of influenza and public health decision‐making.

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“…In our study, using ILI data over a 12-year period, we identified an annual seasonal pattern in Chongqing, with influenza activity peaking around December to January each winter, the significant seasonality and periodicity is consistent with the previous studies [ 9 , 10 ]. The seasonal characteristics of Chongqing are similar to those of Shenyang, but different from Shenzhen, whose ILI(%) peak occurs in summer [ 36 ]. In addition, to facilitate early warning, we added abnormal feedback over 95% forecast Confidence Intervals to forecast ILI trends and seasonality.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonality of influenza-like illness and short-term forecasting model in Chongqing from 2010 to 2022

Chen,

Xiao

2024

BMC Infect Dis

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Background Influenza-like illness (ILI) imposes a significant burden on patients, employers and society. However, there is no analysis and prediction at the hospital level in Chongqing. We aimed to characterize the seasonality of ILI, examine age heterogeneity in visits, and predict ILI peaks and assess whether they affect hospital operations. Methods The multiplicative decomposition model was employed to decompose the trend and seasonality of ILI, and the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) model was used for the trend and short-term prediction of ILI. We used Grid Search and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to calibrate and verify the optimal hyperparameters, and verified the residuals of the multiplicative decomposition and SARIMAX model, which are both white noise. Results During the 12-year study period, ILI showed a continuous upward trend, peaking in winter (Dec. - Jan.) and a small spike in May-June in the 2–4-year-old high-risk group for severe disease. The mean length of stay (LOS) in ILI peaked around summer (about Aug.), and the LOS in the 0–1 and ≥ 65 years old severely high-risk group was more irregular than the others. We found some anomalies in the predictive analysis of the test set, which were basically consistent with the dynamic zero-COVID policy at the time. Conclusion The ILI patient visits showed a clear cyclical and seasonal pattern. ILI prevention and control activities can be conducted seasonally on an annual basis, and age heterogeneity should be considered in the health resource planning. Targeted immunization policies are essential to mitigate potential pandemic threats. The SARIMAX model has good short-term forecasting ability and accuracy. It can help explore the epidemiological characteristics of ILI and provide an early warning and decision-making basis for the allocation of medical resources related to ILI visits.

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Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions on Influenza in Southern China. Part I. Taking Shenzhen City for Example

Cited by 12 publications

References 13 publications

The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China

The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China

Epidemiology of influenza in hospitalized children with respiratory tract infection in Suzhou area from 2016 to 2019

Seasonality of influenza-like illness and short-term forecasting model in Chongqing from 2010 to 2022

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