Impacts of Changes in Climate and Its Variability on Food Production in Northeast China

Jin, Zhiqing; Zhu, Dan

doi:10.1016/s1875-2780(09)60005-5

Cited by 33 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Without adaptation, the percentage of harvests failing is in all cases higher than the baseline value, confirming the importance of heat and water stress quantified elsewhere (e.g. [33]). Comparing the biophysical adaptation scenarios across figures 2(a) and (b) shows that water stress plays a more important role than temperature stress for yields between one and two standard deviations below the baseline mean.…”

Section: Options For Adaptationsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…Nonetheless, the VI analysis does provide a tentative indication of the influence of farming methods on the incidence of crop failure. Also, the fundamental processes simulated by the crop model (extremes of water and heat stress in particular) are likely to continue to be key drivers of crop yield despite spatial and temporal variation in the crop cultivation methods used; particularly since ongoing increases in extreme events are expected under climate change [33]. We also note that the vulnerability index analysis is predicated on the relationship between yield anomaly and VI-and hence implicitly seasonal total rainfall-being due to short-term farmer adaptation.…”

Section: Vulnerability Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Challinor

Simelton

Fraser

et al. 2010

Environ. Res. Lett.

197

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty and adaptation, using spring wheat in Northeast China as a case study. A parallel 'vulnerability index' approach uses quantitative socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation.The simulations show crop failure rates increasing under climate change, due to increasing extremes of both heat and water stress. Crop failure rates increase with mean temperature, with increases in maximum failure rates being greater than those in median failure rates. The results suggest that significant adaptation is possible through either socio-economic measures such as greater investment, or biophysical measures such as drought or heat tolerance in crops. The results also show that adaptation becomes increasingly necessitated as mean temperature and the associated number of extremes rise. The results, and the limitations of this study, also suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

show abstract

Section: Options For Adaptationsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Vulnerability Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Challinor

Simelton

Fraser

et al. 2010

Environ. Res. Lett.

197

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…σ is the elasticity of substitution between value added and intermediate inputs, σVAE is the elasticity of substitution between primary factors, σLW is the elasticity of substitution between irrigated land and irrigation, σKE is the elasticity of substitution between capital and the energy composite, σD is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported inputs and σM is the elasticity of substitution between imported inputs. Rosenzweig and Iglesias (1994) and Jin and Zhu (2008). Note: In GTAP-W, rice, wheat, vegetables, fruits, nuts, oil seeds and other agricultural products are considered C3 crops.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

show abstract

“…NEC has longer and colder winters with a short growing season and frequent cold extreme events during the maize growing season (May-September), which are adverse to agricultural production (Yang et al, 2007). Previous studies indicate that NEC experienced a warming trend in surface average temperature equal to 0.38°C per decade over the past five decades and identify this area as one of the major agricultural production areas in China that is the most susceptible to climate change (Yang et al, 2007;Jin & Zhu, 2008;Liu et al, 2009). On the other hand, NEC accounted for 30% of the nation's commercial food grain (maize), consistent with the central part of NEC being known as the Golden-Maize-Belt in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China

Liu

Yang

Hubbard

et al. 2012

Global Change Biology

225

112

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Northeast China (NEC) is not only one of the major agricultural production areas in China, but it is also the most susceptible to climate variability. This led us to investigate the impact of climate change on maize potential yield and yield gaps in this region, where maize accounts for about 30% of the nation's production. The APSIM‐Maize model was calibrated and validated for maize phenology and yields. The validated model was then used to estimate potential yields, rain‐fed potential yields, and yield gaps for assessing the climate impacts on maize productivity in NEC. During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC, whereas the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease. When the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield. A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield. However, the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield, consistent with our finding that farmers adopted longer season hybrids for which the increase in minimum temperature provided better conditions for germination, emergence, and grain filling during night time. The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm). Our results indicate that regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC. Within NEC, on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields, indicating a large exploitable yield gap, which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC.

show abstract

Impacts of Changes in Climate and Its Variability on Food Production in Northeast China

Cited by 33 publications

References 6 publications

Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About