Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow at Kibungo sub-catchment, Tanzania

Mfwango, Lusajo Henry; Ayenew, Tenalem; Mahoo, H. F.

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11285

Cited by 17 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 95 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The hydrologic response of a catchment to the effects of climate change is influenced by the kinds and properties of the soil. Additionally, stream flow, sediment load, and nutrient content modeling are significantly impacted by the precision of soil data [ 35 ]. The source of the soil map was the Food and Agriculture Organization website, https://storage.googleapis.com/fao-maps-catalog-data/uuid/446ed430-8383-11db-b9b2-000d939bc5d8/resources/DSMW.zip .…”

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Gule,

Hailu,

Lemma

2024

Scientifica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This research aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in the Akaki catchment, which provides water to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was performed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and an ensemble of four global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The climate data were downscaled and bias-corrected using the CMhyd tool and calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software package. Change points and patterns in annual rainfall and temperature were determined using the homogeneity test and Mann–Kendell trend test. Water quality data were obtained from Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA), and more samples were taken and analyzed in accordance with APHA recommended procedures. The SWAT model output was then used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and water quality. Rainfall increased by 19.39 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 12.8 mm/year under SSP8.5. Maximum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr for SSP2-4.5 and 0.04°C/yr for SSP5-8.5. Minimum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr under SSP2-4.5 and 0.07°C/yr under SSP5-8.5. This warming will augment the evapotranspiration rate which in turn will have a negative impact on the freshwater availability. Streamflow will increase by 5% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.49% under SSP5-85 which may increase sporadic flooding events. Climate change is expected to contribute to the deterioration of water quality shown by 61%, 36%, 79%, 115%, and 70% increased ammonia, chlorophyll-a, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphorus loadings, respectively, from 2022. The increase in temperature results in increases in nutrient loading and a decrease in dissolved oxygen. Overall, this research demonstrated the vulnerability of the catchment to climate change. The findings of this research can offer vital knowledge to policymakers on possible strategies for the sustainable management of water.

show abstract

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Gule,

Hailu,

Lemma

2024

Scientifica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As shown in the Supplementary Materials S6, the IPPC's fifth assessment report from 2014 presented four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios: RCP 2.6 (low emission scenario), RCP 4.5 (low-medium emission scenario), RCP 6.0 (medium-high emission scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario). In this study, three RCPs (4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used to analyze the future (2030-2060) climate change impacts because they assume an increase in GHG emissions until 2080, followed by a decline [65]. The steps outlined in the Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R were used to create the near-future climate scenario of precipitation and temperatures [24,65,66].…”

Section: Calibration and Validation Of Future Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, three RCPs (4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used to analyze the future (2030-2060) climate change impacts because they assume an increase in GHG emissions until 2080, followed by a decline [65]. The steps outlined in the Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R were used to create the near-future climate scenario of precipitation and temperatures [24,65,66]. The RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 with ensembled GCM (ACCESS1.3, MIROC5 and CNRM.CM5) models were subsequently downscaled to the watershed level [67] using the Simple Delta Method, as it retains the historical patterns of the gridded observations [24].…”

Section: Calibration and Validation Of Future Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on River Discharge towards Lake Victoria

Shinhu,

Amasi,

Wynants

et al. 2023

Earth

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Lake Victoria basin’s expanding population is heavily reliant on rainfall and river flow to meet their water needs, making them extremely vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. To develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate changes it is urgently necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the quantity of water in the rivers that drain into Lake Victoria. In this study, the semi-distributed hydrological SWAT model was used to evaluate the impact of current land use and climate changes for the period of 1990–2019 and assess the probable future impacts of climate changes in the near future (2030–2060) on the Simiyu river discharge draining into Lake Victoria, Northern Tanzania. The General Circulation Model under RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 predicted an increase in the annual average temperature of 1.4 °C in 2030 to 2 °C in 2060 and an average of 7.8% reduction in rainfall in the catchment. The simulated river discharge from the hydrological model under RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 revealed a decreasing trend in annual average discharge by 1.6 m3/s from 5.66 m3/s in 2019 to 4.0 m3/s in 2060. The increase in evapotranspiration caused by the temperature increase is primarily responsible for the decrease in river discharge. The model also forecasts an increase in extreme discharge events, from a range between 32.1 and 232.8 m3/s in 1990–2019 to a range between 10.9 and 451.3 m3/s in the 2030–2060 period. The present combined impacts of climate and land use changes showed higher effects on peak discharge at different return periods (Q5 to Q100) with values of 213.7 m3/s (Q5), 310.2 m3/s (Q25) and 400.4 m3/s (Q100) compared to the contributions of climate-change-only scenario with peak discharges of 212.1 m3/s (Q5), 300.2 m3/s (Q25) and 390.2 m3/s (Q100), and land use change only with peak discharges of 295.5 m3/s (Q5), 207.1 m3/s Q25) and 367.3 m3/s (Q100). However, the contribution ratio of climate change was larger than for land use change. The SWAT model proved to be a useful tool for forecasting river discharge in complex semi-arid catchments draining towards Lake Victoria. These findings highlight the need for catchment-wide water management plans in the Lake Victoria Basin.

show abstract

“…The warming of our planet has far-reaching effects on multiple aspects, including the weather system, hydrology, ecology, and environment. Precipitation and temperature are essential climatic factors that have a substantial influence on the hydrological processes of a watershed (Mfwango et al, 2022). Research indicates that positive shifts in temperature and rainfall have a notable but detrimental effect on rice production in Malaysia (Zhang et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends of Bangladesh during 1989 to 2019 and the Possible Impacts of Rainfall and Temperature Changes

Sutradhar,

Dey,

Rahman

et al. 2023

Int. J. Res. Publ. Rev.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper analyzed the temperature and rainfall data series of 35 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over 30 years (1989 to 2019) to present the trend and time series analysis of these climatic variables. Also, the possible impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on different sectors are discussed here.Statistical methods like the Mann Kendall test and Sen's slope test were used to detect trend variation in temperature and rainfall patterns. Maps were generated using Geographical Information System (GIS) to visually represent the magnitude of change observed in the study. The result shows a change of mean temperature in Bangladesh with an upward trend (0.25 °C per decade) in the pre-monsoon season. The southern, south central and southeastern areas like, Patuakhali (0.47°C per decade), Sandwip (1.0°C per decade), Khepupara (0.73°C per decade), Syedpur (1.1°C per decade), Faridpur (0.8°C per decade), Teknaf (0.8°C per decade), Hatia (1.12°C per decade) and Chandpur (0.47°C per decade) are found to be prone to increase of maximum temperature in all seasons. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature is observed in the northwestern, northeastern, central and southern parts of Bangladesh like, Chittagong (0.65°C per decade), Barisal (0.4°C per decade), Srimangal (1.05°C per decade), Dhaka (0.54°C per decade) and Bogra (0.42°C per decade). Southern areas like Sandwip (34 mm/year) and Chittagong (24 mm/year) has faced maximum increase in rainfall amount in monsoon and pre monsoon seasons. Decrement of rainfall is mostly faced by central regions, like Madaripur (-17.55 mm/year) and Faridpur (-12.28 mm/year) throughout monsoon and winter seasons. But in post monsoon season, these two stations have faced an exceptionally higher increment of rainfall which is almost 32.75 mm/year and 32.38 mm/year respectively.

show abstract

Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow at Kibungo sub-catchment, Tanzania

Cited by 17 publications

References 95 publications

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Assessing the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on River Discharge towards Lake Victoria

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends of Bangladesh during 1989 to 2019 and the Possible Impacts of Rainfall and Temperature Changes

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About