Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru

Abstract

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability on the maximum precipitation, temperature, and hydrological regime in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru. The outputs of precipitation and daily temperature of fifteen regional climate models were used for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The methodology used includes the bias correction and downscaling of meteorological variables using the quintiles mapping technique, hydrological modeling, the evaluation of two emission scenarios, and its effect on the maximum flows of the stream. The results of the multi-model ensemble show that the maximum annual precipitation will probably increase by more than 30% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 period relative to the 1981–2005 period. Likewise, as expected, the maximum flows could increase by 220% and 154% for the RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, and 234% and 484% for the RCP8.5 scenarios and for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, concerning the recorded historical value, increasing the probability of flood events and damage in populations located downstream.

Assessment of Bottom-Up Satellite Precipitation Products on River Streamflow Estimations in the Peruvian Pacific Drainage

“…In this context, selecting an appropriate hydrological model is a significant task. In this study, similar to other studies [57], the GR4J model was chosen. This model was selected because it has demonstrated satisfactory results (NSE > 0.5) in several basins in Peru [34,58].…”

Hydrogeochemical Characterization and Identification of Factors Influencing Groundwater Quality in Coastal Aquifers, Case: La Yarada, Tacna, Peru

“…The cultivated lands in the aquifer of La Yarada correspond to the Caplina Valley, partially irrigated by the Caplina River and the area of flatlands of La Yarada and Hospice with groundwater irrigation pumped own aquifer ( Figure 2 ) [ 17 ]. The Municipal Forest represents an extensive forest massif in the area of 60 Ha, of artificial origin created through the sustainable use of wastewater treated in the Magollo treatment plant, located in the border area of Magollo and La Yarada [ 19 , 20 ].…”

Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA

“…Currently several phenomena have caused global variations in climatic conditions. One example is projections that indicate an increase between 1.8 and 4 C 19 , 20 in temperature. In Brazil temperatures are expected to rise between 1.8 and 4 C 21 – 23 .…”