Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

A numerical study of the mixing and stratification alterations in estuaries due to climate change using the potential energy anomaly

“…These results are in line with the results found by Liu and Liu, 2014;Duvall et al, 2022;Pereira et al, 2022 andCosta et al, 2023, where the increase of salinity intrusion in the estuaries is reported due to sea level rise. It is important to point out that the salinity and density in the Suances estuary are strongly related and the changes in temperature will be minimal as shown in Table 3.…”

“…Buoyancy input in the form of freshwater and saltwater provides a stratifying influence on estuaries and adjacent coastal waters, driving low-density surface water toward the ocean and high-density bottom water toward the river, respectively (Simpson et al, 1990). Due to the modification in estuarine forcings by climate change, the mixing and stratification conditions may be modified by increasing the intrusion of marine waters into the estuary, and, subsequently, generating a change in their biodiversity (Duvall et al, 2022;Garnier et al, 2022;Pereira et al, 2022).…”

Using an ecosystem service model to inform restoration planning: A spatially explicit oyster filtration model for Pensacola Bay, Florida

“…Several model assumptions should, however, be considered when determining whether application of this model is appropriate. Our model assumes complete hydrodynamic mixing within cells, which is likely to be the case in the shallow‐water locations of the PBS but may not hold true in deeper water (Duvall et al, 2022). While we considered this assumption to be reasonable given the spatial distribution of the areas of high and medium habitat suitability for oysters in the shallower regions in the PBS, this is not the case throughout the PBS.…”

“…Enhanced freshwater discharge further results in broad distribution of the freshwater plume across portions of the mid‐bay during periods of moderate to high flows (Hagy III & Murrell, 2007). While deeper portions of PBS are known to intermittently stratify for long periods of the spring–summer (Hagy III & Murrell, 2007), shallower regions outside the main channel are highly susceptible to wind and tidal mixing on sub‐daily timescales, and may therefore be considered mixed (Duvall et al, 2022). It is these shallower areas in which the high and medium areas of habitat suitability for oyster reefs are predominantly located (Figure S7).…”

“…Spatially explicit water temperature and salinity estimates and hydrodynamic forcings for the oyster filtration model were provided by a three-dimensional simulation model of PBS developed using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) previously described by Duvall et al (2022). The hydrological model accounts for the estuary receiving freshwater inputs from three main rivers: Escambia, Blackwater, and Yellow Rivers, and models water movements throughout five interconnected waterbodies including Pensacola Bay, Escambia Bay, Blackwater Bay, East Bay, and Santa Rosa Sound, and south of Pensacola Pass in the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1).…”