Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Abstract

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

Influence of Low-Impact Development in Flood Control: A Case Study of the Febres Cordero Stormwater System of Guayaquil (Ecuador)

“…Guayaquil has a tropical climate with a wet season from December to May with a total average rainfall of 1011.3 mm [19,20]. In the current study, four official meteorological stations were used (Table 2 and Figure 1) to analyze rainfall events due to the available 5 min fine temporal resolution.…”

“…Other parameters such as pipe length and diameter, node elevation, surface area, and ratio of the impermeable area were obtained from the municipal stormwater master plan [24]. Soil type was determined preliminarily by the current situation of the study area (photographs), recommendations of the SWMM manual [15], and related literature pertinent to the zone [19,28].…”

“…The effect of the Pacific Ocean increases the variability of the events [39]. According to [19], the weather and climate change are altering the patterns and potentially the principal drivers of the climate at all scales. Therefore, the extreme events obtained through the official reports from INAMHI, which have been widely used [40][41][42], represent probabilistic scenarios that are not far away from the reality of this study area.…”

Extreme Flood Levels during the Operation of Cascade Reservoirs: A Case Study of the Lower Yangtze River in 2020

“…Relevant prediction studies in some regions show that due to the impact of climate change, the future rainfall intensity in the Philippines will increase by about 69%, resulting in a larger flood scale [10]. The rivers and coastal floods in the coastal estuaries of Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada will intensify [11], the scale of the annual average and maximum floods in Switzerland will increase [12], and the precipitation in Ecuador in South America will increase by 7%, which will increase the flood discharge by 10% [13]. In addition, it is expected that severe climate change in the Ba River and Penang River basins of Fiji Island will increase the annual loss by 300% in the future [14], and climate change in the Ebro River basin will lead to a significant increase in the number of potentially affected residents and cause economic losses due to flood risk [15].…”

Translating national forest and landscape restoration targets into local action : Towards scale-sensitive governance

“…Mountains are among the most vulnerable ecosystems, with low rates of recovery after disturbance (Rolando et al, 2017). Besides these land-use changes, biodiversity and water security will be increasingly affected by the potentially very high impact of climate change in the Andes region (Espinoza et al, 2020;Ilbay-Yupa et al, 2021;Kleemann et al, 2022). When this is combined with population growth, Ecuador faces growing challenges regarding adequate water quantity and quality and meeting urban water consumption and irrigation demands (Buytaert and De Bièvre, 2012;Kauffman, 2014).…”