Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study

Eruygur, Ozan; Özokcu, Selin

doi:10.5455/ey.35944

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…In China, researchers reported that wheat productivity could be reduced by 3%–10% with just 1°C increase in temperature during the season (You et al., 2009). Similar predictions are also supported by Eruygur and Özokcu (2016), suggesting the loss of 8%–23% of global wheat production by the end of 2100. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to rise soon due to climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2018; Ortiz et al., 2008).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Durum wheat heat tolerance loci defined via a north–south gradient

Sall,

Kabbaj,

Menoum

et al. 2023

The Plant Genome

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The global production of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) is hindered by a constant rise in the frequency of severe heat stress events. To identify heat‐tolerant germplasm, three different germplasm panels (“discovery,” “investigation,” and “validation”) were studied under a range of heat‐stressed conditions. Grain yield (GY) and its components were recorded at each site and a heat stress susceptibility index was calculated, confirming that each 1°C temperature rise corresponds to a GY reduction in durum wheat of 4.6%–6.3%. A total of 2552 polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) defined the diversity of the first panel, while 5642 SNPs were polymorphic in the “investigation panel.” The use of genome‐wide association studies revealed that 36 quantitative trait loci were associated with the target traits in the discovery panel, of which five were confirmed in a “subset” tested imposing heat stress by plastic tunnels, and in the investigation panel. A study of allelic combinations confirmed that Q.icd.Heat.003‐1A, Q.icd.Heat.007‐1B, and Q.icd.Heat.016‐3B are additive in nature and the positive alleles at all three loci resulted in a 16% higher GY under heat stress. The underlying SNPs were converted into kompetitive allele specific PCR markers and tested on the validation panel, confirming that each explained up to 9% of the phenotypic variation for GY under heat stress. These markers can now be used for breeding to improve resilience to climate change and increase productivity in heat‐stressed areas.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Durum wheat heat tolerance loci defined via a north–south gradient

Sall,

Kabbaj,

Menoum

et al. 2023

The Plant Genome

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In China, researchers reported that wheat productivity could be reduced by 3 to 10% due to a 1°C increase in temperature during the growing period (You et al 2009). Similar predictions are also supported by Eruygur et al (2016), suggesting the loss of 8-23% of global wheat production by the end of 2100. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to rise in the near future due to climate change (IPCC 2018; Ortiz et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Durum Wheat Heat Tolerance Loci Defined via a North-South Gradient

Sall

Kabbaj

Menoum³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The global production of durum wheat (Triticum durumDesf.) is hindered by a constant rise in the frequency of severe heat stress. Three different germplasm panels were investigated under a range of heat stress to identify tolerant germplasm. The ‘discovery panel’ was field tested in the south of Morocco and along the Senegal River implementing a mild-to-strong North-South heat stress gradient. A subset of this same panel was also exposed to simulated terminal heat stress by applying plastic tunnels at the time of flowering. The ‘investigation panel’ and a ‘validation panel’ were field tested along the Senegal River under >32°C temperature throughout the season. Grain yield and its components were recorded at each site and a heat stress susceptibility index (HSI) was calculated. A total of 7,652 polymorphic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) defined the diversity of the first panel, while 5,642 SNPs defined the ‘investigation panel’. Genome-wide association study revealed that 36 quantitative trat loci were associated with the target traits in the ‘discovery’ panel, of which five were confirmed in the ‘subset’ tested with plastic tunnels and in the ‘investigation panel’. A haplotype study confirmed that Q.icd.Heat.003-1A, Q.icd.Heat.007-1B and Q.icd.Heat.016-3B are additive in nature and carrying the positive alleles at all three loci resulted in a 17% higher grain yield under heat stress. The underlying SNPs were converted into Kompetitive Allele Specific PCR (KASP) markers and tested on the ‘validation’ panel, confirming that each explained 4 to 9% of the phenotypic variation for grain yield under heat stress.

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“…This study utilized a panel dataset commonly used in literature 49 – 54 to predict the effect of climate change on cereal crop yield. In the panel dataset, the cross-sectional data is spread over a continuous time series 40 , 55 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA

Sharma

Kumar²,

Vatta³

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The southeastern United States (SE-US) is agro-ecologically diversified, economically dependent on agriculture, and mostly overlooked by agroclimatic researchers. The objective of this study was to compute the effect of climatic variables; daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and rainfall on the yield of major cereal crops i.e., corn (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in SE-US. A fixed-effect model (panel data approach) was used by applying the production function on panel data from 1980 to 2020 from 11 SE-US states. An asymmetrical warming pattern was observed, where nocturnal warming was 105.90%, 106.30%, and 32.14%, higher than the diurnal warming during corn, rice, and wheat growing seasons, respectively. Additionally, a shift in rainfall was noticed ranging from 19.2 to 37.2 mm over different growing seasons. Rainfall significantly reduced wheat yield, while, it had no effect on corn and rice yields. The Tmax and Tmin had no significant effect on wheat yield. A 1 °C rise in Tmax significantly decreased corn (− 34%) and rice (− 8.30%) yield which was offset by a 1 °C increase in Tmin increasing corn (47%) and rice (22.40%) yield. Conclusively, overall temperature change of 1 °C in the SE-US significantly improved corn yield by 13%, rice yield by 14.10%, and had no effect on wheat yield.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study

Cited by 14 publications

References 0 publications

Durum wheat heat tolerance loci defined via a north–south gradient

Durum wheat heat tolerance loci defined via a north–south gradient

Durum Wheat Heat Tolerance Loci Defined via a North-South Gradient

Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA

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