Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Chile

Vicuña, Sebastián; Vargas, Ximena; Boisier, Juan Pablo; Mendoza, Pablo; Gómez, Tomás; Vasquéz, Nicolás; Cepeda, José Zavala

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-56901-3_19

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…While the model was originally designed as a land surface scheme for coupled simulations within Earth system models (Liang et al, 1994), most applications have involved uncoupled simulations for hydrological characterizations; accordingly, the literature reports many attempts to improve process representations (e.g., Liang et al, 1996Liang et al, , 1999Cherkauer et al, 2003;Andreadis et al, 2009). VIC is predominantly used in the USA (Addor and Melsen, 2019), with many studies focused on water and energy balances (e.g., Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006;Cayan et al, 2010); however, its use has expanded to other geographical domains, including China (e.g., Zhao et al, 2013;Gou et al, 2021), Chile (e.g., Vásquez et al, 2021;Vicuña et al, 2021), Europe (e.g., Lohmann et al, 1998;Roudier et al, 2016) and globally (e.g., Shukla et al, 2013;Yang et al, 2021). Ongoing community efforts using the VIC model include the NASA Land Information System (LIS; https://lis.gsfc.nasa.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting parameter sensitivities in the variable infiltration capacity model across a hydroclimatic gradient

Sepúlveda

Mendoza

Mizukami

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Despite the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model being used for decades in the hydrology community, there are still model parameters whose sensitivities remain unknown. Additionally, understanding the factors that control spatial variations in parameter sensitivities is crucial given the increasing interest in obtaining spatially coherent parameter fields over large domains. In this study, we investigate the sensitivities of 43 soil, vegetation and snow parameters in the VIC model for 101 catchments spanning the diverse hydroclimates of continental Chile. We implement a hybrid local–global sensitivity analysis approach, using eight model evaluation metrics to quantify sensitivities, with four of them formulated from runoff time series, two characterizing snow processes, and the remaining two based on evaporation processes. Our results confirm an overparameterization for the processes analyzed here, with only 12 (i.e., 28 %) parameters found to be sensitive, distributed among soil (7), vegetation (2) and snow (3) model components. Correlation analyses show that climate variables – in particular, mean annual precipitation and the aridity index – are the main controls on parameter sensitivities. Additionally, our results highlight the influence of the leaf area index on simulated hydrologic processes – regardless of the dominant climate types – and the relevance of hard-coded snow parameters. Based on correlation results and the interpretation of spatial sensitivity patterns, we provide guidance on the most relevant parameters for model calibration according to the target processes and the prevailing climate type. Overall, the results presented here contribute to an improved understanding of model behavior across watersheds with diverse physical characteristics that encompass a wide hydroclimatic gradient from hyperarid to humid systems.

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Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting parameter sensitivities in the variable infiltration capacity model across a hydroclimatic gradient

Sepúlveda

Mendoza

Mizukami

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…Furthermore, most research in this area has focused on rock glaciers [23,24], which represent only a small component of mountain permafrost. Limited research has been completed on the influence of climate change in mountain watersheds characterized by the presence of permafrost and studies to date highlight the lack of data in these environments [25][26][27][28]. In the context of rock glaciers in the Dry Andes, conclusions of two recent studies [27,29] illustrate how the current state of knowledge on mountain permafrost hydrology is conflicting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mountain Permafrost Hydrology—A Practical Review Following Studies from the Andes

et al. 2022

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Climate change is expected to reduce water security in arid mountain regions around the world. Vulnerable water supplies in semi-arid zones, such as the Dry Andes, are projected to be further stressed through changes in air temperature, precipitation patterns, sublimation, and evapotranspiration. Together with glacier recession this will negatively impact water availability. While glacier hydrology has been the focus of scientific research for a long time, relatively little is known about the hydrology of mountain permafrost. In contrast to glaciers, where ice is at the surface and directly affected by atmospheric conditions, the behaviour of permafrost and ground ice is more complex, as other factors, such as variable surficial sediments, vegetation cover, or shallow groundwater flow, influence heat transfer and time scales over which changes occur. The effects of permafrost on water flow paths have been studied in lowland areas, with limited research in the mountains. An understanding of how permafrost degradation and associated melt of ground ice (where present) contribute to streamflow in mountain regions is still lacking. Mountain permafrost, particularly rock glaciers, is often conceptualized as a (frozen) water reservoir; however, rates of permafrost ground ice melt and the contribution to water budgets are rarely considered. Additionally, ground ice and permafrost are not directly visible at the surface; hence, uncertainties related to their three-dimensional extent are orders of magnitude higher than those for glaciers. Ground ice volume within permafrost must always be approximated, further complicating estimations of its response to climate change. This review summarizes current understanding of mountain permafrost hydrology, discusses challenges and limitations, and provides suggestions for areas of future research, using the Dry Andes as a basis.

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“…This warrants attention and action as the southern Chilean Andes have the highest global water tower index outside of Asia (Immerzeel et al, 2020), yet the region has significantly less built infrastructure, monitoring networks, and forecasting centers that could instill resilience to these hydrologic cycle alterations. The cross-hemispheric perspective of low-to-no snow emergence also demonstrates shared commonalities across regions and highlights the need for a pro-active exchange of policy interventions (Castilla-Rho et al, 2019), cutting-edge water management strategies (Scanlon et al, 2016;Sterle et al, 2019;Dillon et al, 2019;Delaney et al, 2020) and conceptual frameworks (Szinai et al, 2020;Vicuña et al, 2021). Most importantly, it highlights the need to implement carbon mitigation strategies at scale (Williams et al, 2021) that inhibit the global warming level at which persistent low-to-no snow conditions emerge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Asymmetric Emergence of Low-to-No Snow in the American Cordillera

Rhoades¹,

Hatchett²,

Risser³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here, the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world's most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical, and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the Southern Hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines in both dry and wet years. Prevention of a low-to-no snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Chile

Cited by 18 publications

References 26 publications

Revisiting parameter sensitivities in the variable infiltration capacity model across a hydroclimatic gradient

Revisiting parameter sensitivities in the variable infiltration capacity model across a hydroclimatic gradient

Mountain Permafrost Hydrology—A Practical Review Following Studies from the Andes

Asymmetric Emergence of Low-to-No Snow in the American Cordillera

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