Impacts of climate change on wheat phenology and yield in Indus Basin, Pakistan

Climate-Induced Perspective Variations in Irrigation Schedules and Design Water Requirements for the Rice–Wheat System

“…The ambient temperature primarily drives the crop phenological process, and its increase often leads to a shorter growth span [8]. Furthermore, the ET o is highly sensitive to the temperature and R n fluctuations in the study area [22], and the R n reduction could offset the warming-driven ET o and ET c rates [2,37,38]. All of the aforementioned studies attributed the ET o , ET c , and NIWR declines to a combination of growth span shrinkage and R n reduction.…”

“…The results indicate that 2-3 irrigations per season will be the most common irrigation schedule for future wheat, especially in the 2060s. ET o is the primary determinant of ET c rates, and it indicates the overall climate change influence on atmospheric evaporative demand [2,22]. Future climate warming steadily raised the wheat seasonal cumulative ET o and ET c up to 40 mm, with the highest positive shifts during the 2060s under RCP 8.5 relative to the baseline (Figure 5a,b).…”

“…Evidence of human-inflicted climate change in triggering the slew of cataclysmic weather and climate extremes and their attribution to human influences has strengthened since AR 5 [1]. The literature includes many studies addressing the assessment and mitigation of climate change impacts across various aspects of human life [2,3]. Agriculture is the primary target of adverse climate change impacts due to its indisputable higher dependence on the climate for survival [4].…”

“…Agriculture is the primary target of adverse climate change impacts due to its indisputable higher dependence on the climate for survival [4]. Climate-driven natural calamities such as floods, droughts, and warm and dry spells, exacerbated by climate warming or rainfall changes [1], are reshaping crop growth patterns, irrigation demand and supply, and particularly yields [2,3,[5][6][7][8].…”

“…Several studies have quantified the severity of the climate change phenomenon in Pakistan and its implications for crop production and water requirements [3,6,7,9,[14][15][16]. Climate change impacts on crop water requirements [7,16,17], crop phenology [2,18], yields, and water productivity using the crop growth models [6,9,10,14,15] and yield gap [11] have been evaluated. Shabbir et al [19] and Shahid et al [14] optimized adaptation strategies such as nitrogen application rates, plant density, and sowing dates for rice and wheat, respectively, against future climate change threats.…”