Impacts of climate change on groundwater droughts by means of standardized indices and regional climate models

Secci, Daniele; Tanda, Maria Giovanna; D’Oria, Marco; Todaro, Valeria; Fagandini, Camilla

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127154

Cited by 35 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Water scarcity can lead to groundwater overexploitations, which can also cause a progressive salinization of the fresh water in the coastal aquifers. Different approaches will be investigated to relate the temperature and precipitation changes to the groundwater resource availability, making use of complete numerical models or surrogate models (see e.g., [58]) that describe the propagation processes from meteorological to groundwater droughts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Todaro

D’Oria

Secci

et al. 2022

Water

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The Mediterranean region is one of the most responsive areas to climate change and was identified as a major “hot-spot” based on global climate change analyses. This study provides insight into local climate changes in the Mediterranean region under the scope of the InTheMED project, which is part of the PRIMA programme. Precipitation and temperature were analyzed in an historical period and until the end of this century for five pilot sites, located between the two shores of the Mediterranean region. We used an ensemble of 17 Regional Climate Models, developed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Over the historical period, the temperature presents upward trends, which are statistically significant for some sites, while precipitation does not show significant tendencies. These trends will be maintained in the future as predicted by the climate models projections: all models indicate a progressive and robust warming in all study areas and moderate change in total annual precipitation, but some seasonal variations are identified. Future changes in droughts events over the Mediterranean region were studied considering the maximum duration of the heat waves, their peak temperature, and the number of consecutive dry days. All pilot sites are expected to increase the maximum duration of heat waves and their peak temperature. Furthermore, the maximum number of consecutive dry days is expected to increase for most of the study areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Todaro

D’Oria

Secci

et al. 2022

Water

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“…The same correction estimated for the historical period was then applied for the future. More information and additional details on the downscaling and bias correction methods can be found in the studies of D'Oria et al [33][34][35][36] and Secci et al [37].…”

Section: Climate Change Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Groundwater Modelling under Data Scarcity: The Example of the Wadi El Bey Coastal Aquifer (Tunisia)

Baccouche,

Lincker,

Akrout

et al. 2024

Water

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The Grombalia aquifer constitutes a complex aquifer system formed by shallow, unconfined, semi-deep, and deep aquifers at different exploitation levels. In this study, we focused on the upper aquifer, the Wadi El Bey coastal aquifer. To assess natural aquifer recharge, we used a novel physiography-based method that uses soil texture-dependent potential infiltration coefficients and monthly rainfall data. The developed transient flow model was then applied to compute the temporal variation in the groundwater level in 34 observation wells from 1973 to 2020, taking into account the time series of spatially variable groundwater recharge, artificial groundwater recharge from 5 surface infiltration basins, pumping rates on 740 wells, and internal prescribed head cells to mimic water exchange between the wadis and aquifer. The quantified deviations in the computed hydraulic heads from measured water levels are acceptable because the database used to construct a scientifically sound and reliable groundwater model was limited. Further work is required to collect field data to quantitatively assess the local inflow and outflow rates between surface water and groundwater. The simulation of 12 climate scenarios highlighted a bi-structured north—south behaviour in the hydraulic heads: an increase in the north and a depletion in the south. A further increase in the pumping rate would, thus, be severe for the southern part of the Wadi El Bey aquifer.

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“…Uncertainties in station-scale groundwater dynamics also affect our understanding of the root-groundwater relationship and groundwater's contribution to ET. Combining drought indices at different timescales (e.g., the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) at the regional scale (Secci et al, 2021) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-based anomalies in terrestrial water storage (Li et al, 2019) can be promising to indirectly represent the groundwater dynamics, but mismatches in spatial scales may still cause errors. In addition, our accuracy evaluation was based on the leave-one-station-out cross-validation (Zhang et al, 2021).…”

Section: Uncertainties In the Et Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations

Shi,

Luo,

Hellwich

et al. 2023

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the context of global warming, an increase in atmospheric aridity and global dryland expansion under the future climate has been expected in previous studies. However, this conflicts with observed greening over drylands and the insignificant increase in hydrological and ecological aridity from the ecohydrology perspective. Combining climatic, hydrological, and vegetation data, this study evaluated global dryland aridity changes at meteorological stations from 2003 to 2019. A decoupling between atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation aridity was found. Atmospheric aridity represented by the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased, hydrological aridity indicated by machine-learning-based precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P − ET) data did not change significantly, and ecological aridity represented by the leaf area index (LAI) decreased. P − ET showed nonsignificant changes in most of the dominant combinations of the VPD, LAI, and P − ET. This study highlights the added value of using station-scale data to assess dryland change as a complement to results based on coarse-resolution reanalysis data and land surface models.

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Impacts of climate change on groundwater droughts by means of standardized indices and regional climate models

Cited by 35 publications

References 41 publications

Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Quantitative Groundwater Modelling under Data Scarcity: The Example of the Wadi El Bey Coastal Aquifer (Tunisia)

Global dryland aridity changes indicated by atmospheric, hydrological, and vegetation observations at meteorological stations

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