Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes

Lin, Pengfei; He, Zhibin; Du, Jun; Chen, Longfei; Zhu, Xi; Li, Jing

doi:10.1002/joc.5477

Cited by 53 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(141 reference statements)

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“…At present, numerous studies regarding the effects of climatic factors on the variations in ET 0 , E pan or ET p have been carried out. Previous studies have mainly focused on empirical and mathematical statistical methods that include the sensitivity coefficient method (McCuen, ; Huo et al , ; Fan et al , ; Lin et al , ), multivariate linear regression (Liu et al , ; Yeşilırmak, ), stepwise regression (Jhajharia et al , ; Tabari and Marofi, ), correlation coefficient (Liu et al , ), cluster analysis model (He et al , ) and the detrending method (Xu et al , ; Wang et al , ; Huo et al , ; Li et al , ; Chu et al , ; Nouri et al , ). Although these aforementioned models can delineate the relative contributions of climatic factors to evaporation or evapotranspiration trends, their actual contributions cannot be quantitatively described.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution analysis of actual and potential evapotranspiration changes based on the complementary relationship theory in the Huai River basin of eastern China

Chu

Meng

Islam

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Accurate terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation and understanding the causes of ET variation are essential for water resource management and irrigation planning. In this research, the complementary relationship (CR) between actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) and potential evapotranspiration (ET p ) was evaluated. An Advection-Aridity (AA) model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurements. The spatiotemporal variations of ET a , ET p and associated meteorological variables were examined through Mann-Kendall (MK) testing and Theil-Sen's estimator, using daily weather data from 137 meteorological stations in Huai River basin (HRB) during 1961-2014. Moreover, the influences of meteorological factors on ET a and ET p were quantified by the differential equation method. The results indicate that CR theory is applicable in the HRB and the calibrated AA model can simulate the ET a well. ET a exhibited a significant increasing trend before 1990 and then decreased significantly. However, ET p decreased significantly before 1990 and then declined slightly. During 1961During -1990, except for significant increasing relative humidity (RH), other meteorological variables exhibited decreasing trends. The aerodynamic component dominated ET a and ET p trends in general. The wind speed at 2-m height (u 2 ) dominated ET a trends except for summer and growing season and ET p trends except for summer, when the dominant factor is net radiation (R n ). During 1991-2014, mean temperature (T a ) and RH showed distinct increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, whereas significant decline in u 2 palpably slowed. The absolute value of the radiative component was larger than that of the aerodynamic one. The dominant factor of ET a trends shifted from u 2 to RH in spring and to R n in autumn, winter and annual timescales. Moreover, the dominant factor of ET p trends changed from u 2 to RH in spring, winter and annual timescales and to R n in growing season and autumn. R n always played a pivotal role in both ET a and ET p trends in summer. K E Y W O R D Sactual evapotranspiration, Advection-Aridity model, complementary relationship theory, differential equation method, Huai River basin

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution analysis of actual and potential evapotranspiration changes based on the complementary relationship theory in the Huai River basin of eastern China

Chu

Meng

Islam

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Overall, ET 0 displays an upward trend across the whole area, which agrees with other relevant studies, such as the Qilian Mountains (Lin et al ., ) and Loess Plateau (Li et al ., ). Typically, the RCP 8.5 scenario brings the highest growth rate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A positive (or negative) sensitivity coefficient of a climatic variable indicates that ET 0 will increase (or decrease) as the climatic variable increases (or decreases). The larger the sensitivity coefficient, the larger effect a given variable has on ET 0 (Lin et al ., ).

S_{vi} = \lim_{italicΔvi \to 0} ((), \frac{{ΔET}_{0} / {ET}_{0}}{Δ v_{i} / v_{i}}) = \frac{\partial {ET}_{0}}{\partial v_{i}} \cdot \frac{v_{i}}{{ET}_{0}},

where S vi is the sensitivity coefficient of ET 0 related to the i th climatic variable v i .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios

Zhao

Xia

Yue

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global climate change is likely to affect reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is important for agricultural water resources and food security. Analysis of ET0 changes is also important for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. In this study, ET0 was calculated from 2020 to 2099 in nine agricultural regions and the entire country of China utilizing the Penman–Monteith method based on bias‐corrected climate data from the global climate models MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM, NorES1‐M, IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, GFDL‐ESM 2M and HadGEM2‐ES under future climate change scenarios. The spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal and annual ET0 and climatic variables were analysed based on the Mann–Kendall test with trend‐free prewhitening (TFPW‐MK) and Sen's slope estimator. Sensitivity coefficient and multivariate regression were used to identify factors controlling the change in ET0. The results showed that seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation both increased under all climate scenarios, and the majority of relative humidity and wind speed values showed downward trends during 2020–2099. The lowest annual ET0 values were found in the NECR and QTR, and the SCR had the maximum ET0. Both the TFPW‐MK and slope statistics showed an upward trend of seasonal ET0 during 2020–2059 under all scenarios. During 2060–2099, seasonal ET0 values showed a slight and nonsignificant downward trend under RCP 2.6, while upward trends were produced in other scenarios. Areas with high ET0 values were located in the SCR, GXR and HHHR, while low ET0 values mainly occurred in the NECR and QTR. The ET0 for the four seasons in the SCR was higher than that in the other regions, and the summer ET0 was the highest compared with that in the other seasons overall. For the attribution assessment, Tavg is the main controlling variables to ET0 trends under the interaction of multiple climatic factors though RH is the most sensitive.

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“…This catchment covers an area of about 3 km 2 and the altitude ranges from 2620 to 3788 m. According to the long-term climate record from the meteorological station, the mean annual temperature is about 2.0 • C and the mean annual precipitation ranges from 374 to 407 mm at an elevation of 2700 m, while approximately 65% of the precipitation occurs during the growing season [31]. This region experiences obvious climate change such as an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation [32]. Compared with the climate in the adjacent plain region, the Qilian Mountains have characteristics of short growing seasons, low temperatures, and high soil water content [33].…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Soil Hydrothermal Characteristics among Three Typical Vegetation Types: An Eco-Hydrological Analysis in the Qilian Mountains, China

Sun

et al. 2019

Water

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Soil moisture is a central theme in eco-hydrology. Topography, soil characteristics, and vegetation types are significant factors impacting soil moisture dynamics. However, water loss (evapotranspiration and leakage) and its factors of the self-organized vegetation pattern are not clear, which has significant ecologic functions and contributes to different hydrological ecosystem services. From an eco-hydrological point of view, we relied on the observation of rainfall, soil moisture, and soil temperature in the growing season of a drought year to compare soil moisture and temperature dynamics in terms of frequency/probability distribution and water loss among three typical vegetation types in the Qilian Mountains, China. The results indicated that shrubland (the semi-shaded slope) had the highest average soil moisture at the surface soil (0–40 cm) and soil profile during the growing season, while grassland (the south-facing slope) had the lowest daily average soil moisture and highest daily average soil temperature at the surface soil and soil profile. Spruce forest (the shaded slope) had the lowest daily average soil temperature at the surface soil and soil profile (p < 0.001). Water loss among the three vegetation types has a clear positive relationship with soil water content and a negative relationship with soil temperature. The values of water loss between values of water loss at the wilting point and maximum evapotranspiration point tend to occur in wetter soil moisture under the spruce forest and shrubland, whereas that of grassland emerges in drier soil moisture. The spruce forest and shrubland experienced higher water loss than the grassland. Although the spruce forest and shrubland had a better capacity to retain soil water, they also consumed more soil water than the grassland. Soil moisture may be the main factor controlling the difference in water loss among the three vegetation types. These findings may contribute to improving our understanding of the relationship between the soil moisture dynamics and vegetation pattern, and may offer basic insights for ecosystem management for upstream water-controlled mountainous areas.

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Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes

Cited by 53 publications

References 77 publications

Attribution analysis of actual and potential evapotranspiration changes based on the complementary relationship theory in the Huai River basin of eastern China

Attribution analysis of actual and potential evapotranspiration changes based on the complementary relationship theory in the Huai River basin of eastern China

Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios

Soil Hydrothermal Characteristics among Three Typical Vegetation Types: An Eco-Hydrological Analysis in the Qilian Mountains, China

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