Impacts of climate change, ozone recovery, and increasing methane on surface ozone and the tropospheric oxidizing capacity

Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Abraham, N. L.; Telford, P.; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, J. A.; Hardiman, Steven C.; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Johnson, C. E.

doi:10.1029/2012jd018382

Cited by 62 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Stevenson et al, 2006;Zeng et al, 2008;Kawase et al, 2011;Morgenstern et al, 2013;Young et al, 2013). For the ozone burden, Kawase et al (2011) also find increases under RCP4.5 and 8.5 in sensitivity tests that are similar to the CC4.5 and CC8.5 runs of this study.…”

Section: Ozone Burdensupporting

confidence: 55%

“…On the other hand, isolating the impacts of declining ODS concentrations, and the associated recovery of stratospheric ozone, on tropospheric composition has received attention in only a few studies (Kawase et al, 2011;Morgenstern et al, 2013;Zhang et al, 2014). Effects could occur through two main mechanisms: (i) increases in STE and (ii) increases in overhead ozone column with concomitant reductions in tropospheric photolysis rates.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

et al. 2016

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Abstract.A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office's Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in (a) greenhouse gases and climate, (b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and (c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposes the effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden.The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τ O 3 ) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τ O 3 simulated under reductions in ODSs and ozone precursor emissions.The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs.

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Section: Ozone Burdensupporting

confidence: 55%

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confidence: 99%

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

et al. 2016

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“…However, the version of the model used here does not have a comprehensive tropospheric chemistry scheme and therefore tropospheric ozone changes are not considered in this analysis. For a discussion on the impact of stratospheric ozone changes on STE in UM-UKCA see Morgenstern et al (2013) and Braesicke et al (2013).…”

Section: Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate

et al. 2014

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Abstract. The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss resulting from chlorine activation on polar stratospheric clouds is examined using a pair of model integrations run with the fully coupled chemistry climate model UM-UKCA. Suppressing chlorine activation through heterogeneous reactions is found to produce modelled ozone differences consistent with observed ozone differences between the present and pre-ozone hole period. Statistically significant high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) ozone loss begins in August and peaks in October-November, with > 75 % of ozone destroyed at 50 hPa. Associated with this ozone destruction is a > 12 K decrease of the lower polar stratospheric temperatures and an increase of > 6 K in the upper stratosphere. The heating components of this temperature change are diagnosed and it is found that the temperature dipole is the result of decreased short-wave heating in the lower stratosphere and increased dynamical heating in the upper stratosphere. The cooling of the polar lower stratosphere leads, through thermal wind balance, to an acceleration of the polar vortex and delays its breakdown by ∼ 2 weeks. A link between lower stratospheric zonal wind speed, the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux, F z and the residual mean vertical circulation, w * , is identified. In November and December, increased westerly winds and a delay in the breakup of the polar vortex lead to increases in F z , indicating increased wave activity entering the stratosphere and propagating to higher altitudes. The resulting increase in wave breaking, diagnosed by decreases to the EP flux divergence, drives enhanced downwelling over the polar cap. Many of the stratospheric signals modelled in this study propagate down to the troposphere, and lead to significant surface changes in December.

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“…Stevenson et al, 2000;Prather et al, 2001;Revell et al, 2012a;Morgenstern et al, 2013;Naik et al, 2013;Voulgarakis et al, 2013). Generally, these studies have found that methane increases lead to ozone increases in most of the lower and middle atmosphere (below 1 hPa) which amplify the global warming associated with methane.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This means their chemical impacts occur mostly in the "chlorine layer" around 40 km and in the lower stratosphere over the poles (Brasseur et al, 1999). However, through dynamical feedbacks, transport, and impacts on ultraviolet and longwave radiation, such ozone depletion affects atmospheric composition throughout the troposphere and stratosphere (Madronich and Granier, 1992;Madronich, 1993;Fuglestvedt et al, 1994Fuglestvedt et al, , 1995Morgenstern et al, 2013). Southern Hemisphere climate change is thought to have been dominated in recent decades by ozone depletion (for a review see Thompson et al, 2011), but there is limited evidence for an effect of Arctic ozone depletion on the Northern Hemisphere circulation .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

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Impacts of climate change, ozone recovery, and increasing methane on surface ozone and the tropospheric oxidizing capacity

Cited by 62 publications

References 55 publications

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations

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