Impacts of climate change versus land use change on recent Lijiang River flood regime, South China

We analyzed the characteristics of three main karstic/non-karst reaches of the Lijiang River in south China to uncover the causes behind different flood behaviors by providing a better understanding of the flood formation process. Having 63 years of rainfall-runoff data and applying the Hydrologic Engineering Canter's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) flood forecasting model, the geo/hydrological features were investigated. The available reservoir capacity of karts (ARCK) was included in the model through soil moisture accounting loss data to assess the impact of this variable. In particular, the expected instantaneous peak discharge rates and times were found largely imbalanced with generated unit hydrographs. Moreover, there were significant gaps among the floods’ features in different subbasins in terms of required peak modifications (i.e., two to four times bigger for midstream and upstream subbasins, respectively), which were mainly associated with the unique karst structure and the initial condition due to various ARCK in rainy/dry seasons. Besides, notable dissimilarities between the wedge and prism storage volumes and the hydrograph's wave traveling/receding time were observed owing to the geomorphological conditions. Although the contribution rates of drivers in karst flood formation cannot be quantitatively modeled, however, based on our results the ARCK emerged to play a substantial role on the forecasted results compared.

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Lijiang flood characteristics and implication of karst storage through Muskingum flood routing via HEC-HMS, S. China

Rad

Dai

Jingxuan

et al. 2022

Hydrology Research

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Influence of Karst Reservoir Capacity on Flood in Lijiang Basin Based on Modified HEC-HMS through Soil Moisture Accounting Loss

et al. 2022

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The objective of this work was to modify the HEC-HMS flood prediction for the karstic watershed of the Lijiang River, South China, through the quantitative inclusion into the model of the available reservoir capacity of karst (ARCK) as a case study. Due to the complexities caused by hidden drainage networks in karst hydrology, as a new approach, soil moisture accounting loss was used to reflect the ARCK in flood forecasting. The soil moisture loss was analyzed against daily rainfall runoff data across 1.5 years by using an artificial neural network via phyton programming. Through the correlations found among the amounts of soil moisture and river flow fluctuations in response to precipitation and its intervals, coefficients were introduced to the model for output modifications. ARCK analysis revealed that while heavy rainfalls with longer intervals (i.e., 174 mm/2d after 112 days of the dry season) may not cause considerable changes in the river flow magnitude (0.1–0.64 higher owing to high ARCK), relatively small rainfalls with higher frequency (i.e., 83 mm/4d during the wet season) can cause drastic raise of river flow (10–20 times greater at different stations) due to lower ARCK. Soil moisture accounting loss coefficients did enhance the model’s simulated hydrographs accuracy (NSE) up to 16% on average as compared to the initial forecasting via real data. However, the modifications were valid for flood events within a few years from the soil moisture observation period. Our result suggested that the inclusion of ARCK in modeling through soil moisture accounting loss can lead to increased prediction accuracy through consistent monitoring.

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Impacts of climate change versus land use change on recent Lijiang River flood regime, South China

Abstract: Impacts of climate change versus land use change on recent Lijiang River flood regime, South China Impactos del cambio climático frente al cambio del uso del suelo en el reciente régimen de inundaciones del río

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Lijiang flood characteristics and implication of karst storage through Muskingum flood routing via HEC-HMS, S. China

Lijiang flood characteristics and implication of karst storage through Muskingum flood routing via HEC-HMS, S. China

Influence of Karst Reservoir Capacity on Flood in Lijiang Basin Based on Modified HEC-HMS through Soil Moisture Accounting Loss

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