Impacts of climate warming and crop management on maize phenology in northern China

Abstract

Climate warming has and will continue to exert a significantly impact on crop phenology in the past and coming decades. Combining observed data of phenology and a crop growth model provides a good approach for quantitating the effects of climate warming and crop management on crop phenology. The purpose of this study is to determine the impacts of temperature change, sowing date (SD) adjustment and cultivar shift on maize phenology in northern China during 1981-2010. Results indicated that climate warming caused anthesis date (AD) and maturity date (MD) of maize to advance by 0.2-5.5 and 0.6-11.1 d/10a, respectively. Due to climate-driven changes in maize phenology, three growth periods of maize, i.e., vegetative growth period (VGP; from sowing to anthesis), reproductive growth period (RGP; from anthesis to maturity) and whole growth period (WGP; from sowing to maturity) shortened by 0.2-5.5, 0.4-5.6 and 0.6-11.1 d/10a, respectively. With SD adjustment (i.e., SD advancement), AD and MD occurred early by 0.5-2.6 and 0.1-3.4 d/10a, respectively. SD adjustment caused duration of VGP of maize to prolong. However, duration of RGP slightly shortened by 0.1-1.3 d/10a. Furthermore, due to cultivar shift, MD of maize significantly delayed by 4.9-12.2 d/10a. Durations of VGP, RGP and WGP of maize prolonged by 0.2-4.1, 1.6-8.4 and 4.3-11.8 d/10a, respectively. In conclusion, our results indicated that cultivar shift, to some extent, could mitigate the negative impact of climate warming on maize phenology.

Climate suitability for summer maize on the North China Plain under current and future climate scenarios

“…Days with maximum temperatures higher than the threshold (35°C at stage 3 and 33°C at stage 4) for 1996–2015 are 1.45 and 5.15 days at stages 3 and 4, respectively; however, they increase to 2.68 and 10.17 days under RCP4.5 and 8.12 and 28.75 days under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100, respectively. The increasing average temperature at present could accelerate the maize growth rate and shorten the growing season (Xiao et al ., 2016; Wang et al ., 2018c; Lv et al ., 2020; Xiao et al ., 2019). Furthermore, high temperature stress (temperature over the daily maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at stage 1–3 and 33°C at stage 4) can limit photosynthesis, negatively affect plant water status, increase abscisic acid, further affect pollen viability and fertilization, reduce the grain‐filling rate, shorten the grain‐filling stage, and reduce kernel weight (Tao et al ., 2013; Mayer et al ., 2014; Hatfield and Prueger, 2015; Tao et al ., 2016; Siddik et al ., 2019).…”

“…This change has had a great impact on maize production. For example, the rising temperature has resulted in an accelerated developmental rate and a shortened growth period (Xiao et al ., 2016; Wang et al ., 2018b; Lv et al ., 2020; Xiao et al ., 2019). Without effective cultivar adaptation, data showed that flowering of summer maize on the NCP during 1981–2008 advanced by 0.2–1.1 days 10 −1 a −1 and that maturity advanced by 0.8–1.8 days 10 −1 a −1 ; as a result, the entire reproductive growth period was shortened by 0.3–0.9 days 10 −1 a −1 (Xiao et al ., 2016).…”

Phenological synchrony between summer maize and the Asiancorn borer

“…但也有研究表明, 温度升高也会使得同一玉 米品种所需积温增大, 从而难以区分品种变化和增 温对物候影响的相对贡献大小, 进而使品种变化的 影响被高估 [14] . 1981~2010年间中国北部五个站点的 数据表明, 人为提前玉米播种期使得开花期和成熟 期也提前 [11] .…”

“…不同的玉米品种完成某一生长阶段所需积温具有 差异 [36,37] , 由此导致的玉米生育期长度的变化会使得 玉米各物候期出现提前或延迟, 从而可能影响玉米和 玉米螟的物候同步性. 基于站点数据的研究发现, 品 种变化可以部分抵消气候变暖造成的玉米物候期提 前 [11] , 但由于不同气候状况下同一玉米品种积温需求 具有较大差异 [14,36] , 因此品种对玉米物候期和玉米螟 虫害的影响可能具有一定偏差 [38] . 然而, 目前品种对…”

Detecting Recent Crop Phenology Dynamics in Corn and Soybean Cropping Systems of Kentucky

“…Crop phenology is closely related to climate change and is a critical indicator of optimum yield [6,7]. Therefore, it is essential to consider changes in crop phenology when assessing climate impacts on agricultural productivity, carbon cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks [8,9].…”