Impacts of Constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River

Elsanabary, Mohamed Helmy; Ahmed, Abdelkader T.

doi:10.1007/698_2017_228

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Our assessment concerning (optimal) duration of the filling time, seemingly indicates a lowest loss in energy production, and a smallest penalization of the downstream flows (especially interesting in the S2 scenario, with fair flow release), for a 4-5 years period, consistently with recent findings (e.g., [56]).…”

Section: Hydropower Production Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 89%

“…We normalized price to unit [26], to obtain a relative priority for production, so being able to force the reservoirs' operation towards larger production in response to larger demands (and thereby making a larger profit). Poli-Price model builds upon estimates/projections of gross domestic product (GDP) and temperature, and upon proper random factors to account for unexplained fluctuations [56]. The dependence of price from the mean daily temperature is considered, in terms of the power needed for heating/cooling when the temperature exceeds (below or above) from proper thresholds [56].…”

Section: Hydropower Production Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Poli-Price model builds upon estimates/projections of gross domestic product (GDP) and temperature, and upon proper random factors to account for unexplained fluctuations [56]. The dependence of price from the mean daily temperature is considered, in terms of the power needed for heating/cooling when the temperature exceeds (below or above) from proper thresholds [56]. Poli-Price model is also usable for the purpose of price analysis in the future.…”

Section: Hydropower Production Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Bombelli

Tomiet

Bianchi

et al. 2021

Water

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Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

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Section: Hydropower Production Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Hydropower Production Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydropower Production Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Bombelli

Tomiet

Bianchi

et al. 2021

Water

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“…The riverine forests and riparian ecosystems will be significantly affected as they naturally exist along rivers and water streams. From another viewpoint, conservation of the biodiversity is expected to occur due to changing the morphology of the river noting that the aquatic habitats created by the reservoir are less valuable than the terrestrial natural habitats lost to flooding (Elsanabary & Ahmed, 2019). The World Bank has issued a policy regarding the Natural Habitats, which states that the hydroelectric projects should not be located where they would cause a significant biodiversity conservation or degradation of precarious natural habitats that do not exist anywhere else (World Bank, 2004).…”

Section: Potential Environmental and Socio-economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Assessment for the Potential Environmental Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Downstream Countries: Itaipu Dam in the Rearview Mirror

Morsy

Abdelatif

Mostafa

2021

Air, Soil and Water Research

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This article provides a comparative environmental assessment for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) learning from Itaipu dam experience. The article gives a full insight about the potential political and technical concerns that may affect the downstream countries as a result of the construction of GERD and proposed a solution and way forward for the negotiation based on joint collaboration perspective. Based on the analytical comparison conducted between GERD and Itaipu, the results showed that the total annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions expected to be released from the GERD during the operation is 3,927 tCO2eq, while other secondary emissions were estimated to be 16.17 tons, mainly of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Also, the ratio of power generation to reservoir capacity of the GERD was questionable, since Ethiopia has announced that the dam is built only for power generation and that there is no intention to utilize water from the dam reservoir. On the other side, the water quality - represented in turbidity, total suspended solids (TSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) - behind the GERD is expected to deteriorate dramatically. Also, an increase in total nitrogen (TN) is expected to occur depending on human activities. Accordingly, the article discussed thoughtfully the potential adverse impacts of the GERD on downstream countries and the possible mitigation options. The article also extended to discuss proposals for practical solutions that pave the road for joint collaboration between the three countries to achieve a transparent resolution and a fair resources utilization.

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“…The controversy surrounding the GERD also extends beyond the three riparian states and has ignited intense academic debates. Existing literature on GERD has primarily focused on the potential downstream impacts of the dam including its benefits and costs (Basheer et al, 2020;He et al, 2022;Abdelkader and Mohamed, 2019;Bekhit et al, 2019), filling and operations Abdo et al, 2016;Block et al, 2016), as well as the transboundary cooperation implications of the dam (Cascão et al, 2019;Jeuland et al, 2014;Tawfik, 2016;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

Endaylalu

2024

EJWST

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This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile

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Impacts of Constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River

Cited by 8 publications

References 15 publications

Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Comprehensive Assessment for the Potential Environmental Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Downstream Countries: Itaipu Dam in the Rearview Mirror

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

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