Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on Water Storage Changes in Shandong Province, China

Deng, Longyun; Han, Zhen; Pu, Weixing; Rong, Bao; Wang, Zheye; Wu, Quanyuan; Qiao, Jianmin

doi:10.1007/s11356-022-18759-1

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Unlike the middle route project, the east route project does not involve extensive targeted ecological replenishment. Additionally, due to climate change and human activities, the region has been suffering from severe water shortages [76,77]. As an important base for aquaculture and land reclamation from the sea, the increase in surface water area in Shandong Province is likely due to the development of the aquaculture industry and the restoration of coastal lands [48,78,79] rather than being significantly related to the SNWDP.…”

Section: Reasons For Spatially Varied Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Guo,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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Water scarcity is a significant challenge in China, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) aims to address the water deficit in the northern region. This study analyses Landsat 5/7/8 remote sensing imagery from 2001 to 2020 on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform to assess the impact of the SNWDP on surface water bodies in water-receiving areas. Moreover, by integrating MODIS evapotranspiration data and ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data, this study comprehensively assesses the SNWDP’s contribution to varied surface water body changes. Using an improved multi-temporal water frequency method, this study extracts max, seasonal, and year-long water surface areas. The results reveal that Beijing and Henan provinces have experienced significant increases in water surface areas post-SNWDP, with their max water surface area growing at a rate of 10.42 km2/yr and 33.49 km2/year, respectively. However, water surface areas in several provinces, especially those along the east route, were not observed to increase. The spatially detailed Mann–Kendall test indicates that the expansion of year-long water bodies is mostly concentrated near the central route project, revealing spatial heterogeneity in the water replenishment effect. Cropland and impervious surfaces are the main contributors to transfers in and out of water bodies. Meteorological and water use factors for spatial variations in water changes are also identified. These findings provide insights into the varied hydrological consequences of the SNWDP and contribute to the evaluation and management of similar large-scale water diversion projects around the world.

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Section: Reasons For Spatially Varied Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Guo,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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“…In Huaibei and southwest Shandong, the average annual precipitation and temperature are recorded as 890.97 mm and 15.93 °C, and 710.48 mm and 14.84 °C, respectively. About 60% of precipitation occurs in the summer season in both plain regions (Deng et al, 2022;Gou et al, 2020). The Huaibei Plain serves as a significant region for summer maize and winter wheat production.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis and Projection of Climate Variables Using the LARS-WG Model in Coastal Areas of China

Disasa,

Yan,

Wang

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The rising air temperature and shifting precipitation patterns threaten crop production and water distribution worldwide. The coastal region of China, specifically the Huaibei and Shandong Plains, is recognized as one of the most vulnerable areas among those impacted due to the complex interplay of land, sea, and atmospheric dynamics. The study utilized traditional trend analysis methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope) along with an innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) to predict the baseline arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the monthly precipitation trend. Moreover, the latest version of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG 7) model was used to predict average mean monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures for two future times: midterm 2050 (2041–2060) and long-term 2080 (2071–2090). The performance of each GCM incorporated in LARS-WG was evaluated independently and compared to a multi-model ensemble. All of the meteorological stations that were analyzed using the MK method (except for Suzhou, Dangshan, and Mengcheng) showed a significant decreasing trend in the arithmetic mean of monthly precipitation in March. However, for the majority of the remaining months, the study indicated a non-significant decreasing trend. In contrast, the IPTA method demonstrated a significant decreasing trend in most months, highlighting its superior ability to detect hidden trends compared to the MK method. The projections showed that mean annual precipitation is likely to increase at all meteorological stations in the Huaibei Plains and Shandong Plains during two periods: 2050 (2041–2060) and 2080 (2071–2090). A maximum increase in average mean annual precipitation is projected at the highest emission scenario (ssp585) as compared to the medium (ssp245) and low emission (ssp126) scenarios, and at the long-term period 2080 (2071-2090) as compared to the mid-term period 2050 (2041-2060). The mean annual precipitation in the Shandong Plain is projected to increase by 10.4%, 14.5%, and 14.8% under the ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, in the Huaibei Plain, the projected increases are 10.9%, 13.6%, and 15.1% under the ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585 scenarios, respectively. The anticipated increase in mean precipitation per decade is expected to be 2.0% (= 1.96 mm/decade) in the Huaibei Plain and 1.31% (= 0.63 mm/decade) in the Shandong Plain. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase persistently across all meteorological stations during two time periods: 2050 (2041–2060) and 2080 (2071–2090) under three different SSPs (ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585). The long-term period 2080 (2071–2090) is projected to experience the highest increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures, surpassing the increases observed in the midterm period 2050 (2041–2060). Among the different SSPs, the greatest increase in both maximum and minimum temperature was projected under the highest forcing emission scenario, SSP 585. With a persistent increase in air temperature and precipitation patterns fluctuating under a future climate scenario in the coastal area of China, climate change can influence all aspects of life, especially water resource distribution and agricultural water management. This study provides valuable insight for water resources planners and agricultural experts in the coastal region of China, as this area is a very vulnerable area to climate change and is also the main staple food-producing area in China.

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“…The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) represents a typical agricultural region in China but grapples with notable ecological and environmental challenges, characterized by heightened concentrations and intensification of issues. The swift pace of urbanization exacerbates these pressures, resulting in tensions over land use and imbalances in the provisioning of ESs, notably leading to water shortages (Deng et al 2022a). Such issues arise from the interplay and conflicts among various ESs, driven by diverse factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ecosystem service trade-offs and their drivers in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Qiao,

Deng,

Liu

et al. 2024

Landsc Ecol

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Context Uncovering the trade-offs among ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for enhancing overall ES benefits and human well-being, as well as for improving regional landscape sustainability. However, research on whether relationships among ecosystem service (ES) change across spatial and temporal dimensions has been infrequent, particularly at fine scales. Objectives Our study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the trade-off strength and their influencing factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Methods In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of four ESs: food provision (FP), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY) across the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. We utilized root mean square error, automatic linear models and geographically weighted regression to quantify the trade-off strengths among ESs and uncover the primary influences on the spatiotemporal evolution. Results The trade-off strengths including FP_SC and CS_SC, were relatively high, particularly in the southwest region, surpassing 0.5. High-value regions for FP_WY and WY_CS were predominantly concentrated in the north, while WY_SC was mainly located in the south. Spatial heterogeneity was apparent in the factors influencing the trade-off strengths of ESs. NDVI positively influenced the degree of FP_WY in the western region but had a negative impact in the central region. Enhancing landscape configuration to reduce ES trade-offs involves diversifying and adding complexity to the landscape shape in the southwestern areas by adjusting landscape richness and shape. Regarding human activities, economic development would gradually encourage the coordination of FP_SC and FP_WY. Conclusions Our study suggested that although the trade-offs among ESs may remain constant, the predominant type and intensity of their relationships vary across both space and time. Precipitation and NDVI emerged as the primary factors influencing the strength of ES relationships in this region. This research contributes to balancing the trade-off strengths among ESs and facilitates the pursuit of regional landscape sustainability.

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Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on Water Storage Changes in Shandong Province, China

Cited by 9 publications

References 66 publications

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

The Divergent Changes in Surface Water Area after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

Trend Analysis and Projection of Climate Variables Using the LARS-WG Model in Coastal Areas of China

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ecosystem service trade-offs and their drivers in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

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