Impacts of land use change on thermodynamic and dynamic changes of precipitation for the Yangtze River Basin, China

Lin, Qian; Chen, Jie; Li, Wei; Huang, Kailin; Tan, Xuezhi; Chen, Hua

doi:10.1002/joc.7037

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Bias correction of initial snow depth in this study can be considered as a change in land cover to a large extent. Impacts of land‐cover change on regional climate are mainly through altered thermodynamic processes (Horton et al., 2015; Lin, Chen, et al., 2021). Therefore, the main thermodynamic variables and related variables are analyzed as follows.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Bias‐Corrected ERA5 Initial Snow Depth on Dynamical Downscaling Simulations for the Tibetan Plateau

Lin

Chen

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is often called the “Water Tower of Asia,” which contains the largest amount of snow and glaciers outside the polar regions. As an important and variable feature of the land surface, snow coverage on the TP has great impacts on regional climate. However, the commonly used ERA5 reanalysis in dynamical downscaling largely overestimates the snow depth for the TP. To improve the representation of snow cover in ERA5, a new ERA5‐driven downscaling data set (High Asia Refined analysis version 2, HAR v2) was generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the bias‐corrected snow depth. This study aims to identify and better understand the impact of bias‐corrected initial snow conditions on simulated regional climate, by comparing the HAR v2 with a 5‐year ERA5 forced WRF simulation without bias correction of initial snow depth (referred to as WRF_ERA5). The results show that the bias correction significantly improves the simulation of 2 m air temperature (T2), with regional mean cold bias reduced by 0.2°C–2.4°C, but no significant improvement in precipitation simulation is found. Further comparative analysis reveals that higher snow depth in WRF_ERA5 leads to T2, mean daily precipitation, summer extreme precipitation, and contributions of convective precipitation to summer mean daily precipitation decrease by 0°C–4°C, 0%–60%, 0%–40%, and 0%–10%, respectively, in most areas of the TP. In addition, the bias‐corrected initial snow depth also has impacts on simulated diurnal cycles of precipitation and T2 and leads to peak hours one hour earlier. Overall, this study confirms the importance of snow cover for the climate in the TP.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Bias‐Corrected ERA5 Initial Snow Depth on Dynamical Downscaling Simulations for the Tibetan Plateau

Lin

Chen

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Global climate models (GCMs) representing the earth's physical processes and atmosphere are used to simulate the responses of earth's climate to GHG and land-use changes (Bonan, 1996;Dirmeyer et al, 2010;Donner et al, 2011;McKenney et al, 2011;Lin et al, 2021). One of the major advantages of GCMs is that they can project long-term future climate corresponding to some likely atmospheric GHG concentration scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection

Hamed

Nashwan

Shahid

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The selection of global climate models (GCMs) is a major challenge for reliable projection of climate. A novel method is introduced in this study to select couple model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. Climatology maps of GCM simulated precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data were rasterized to form 8‐bit grey scale images, which were subsequently merged to form a colour image. The GCMs' climatology images were compared with the climatology image prepared using gridded climate data for their performance assessment. This allowed an unbiased comparison of GCMs according to their ability to reconstruct three major climate variables' climatology. The proposed method was employed for CMIP6 GCMs selections and projection of climate of Egypt for different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The study recognized four GCMs suitable for climate projections of Egypt, ACCESS‐CM2, AWI‐CM‐1‐1‐MR, BCC‐CSM2‐MR and MRI‐ESM2‐0. The selected models' biases in simulating precipitation and temperature showed consistent results, underestimating the north and overestimating in the south for rainfall. However, the projections of different GCMs showed a considerable inconsistency. Overall, the results indicated a possible decrease in annual and winter precipitation in the range of 0 to −50% in the high rainfall regions in the north and a large increase in the low rainfall (~5 mm) region in the south. The low rainfall zone in the south showed a gradual expansion with the increase of SSPs and time. The maximum and minimum temperature showed a higher increase in the south, particularly southeast (>6°C in the far future) and least in the northern coastal zone.

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“…As a result, all these schemes are better at predicting the area-average rainfall (Clark et al, 2016). Additionally, the cumulus parameterizations also introduce uncertainties to the model results (Liu et al, 2016). In addition, regarding the WRF spatial resolution impacts, we used 15 km in the study regarding a large nested domain, focusing on the Yangtze River basin with a total area of ∼ 1.8 × 10 6 km 2 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin

Chen

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Land use and cover have been significantly changed all around the world during the last decade. In particular, the Grain for Green (GG) program has resulted in significant changes in regional land use and cover, especially in China. Land use and cover change (LULCC) may lead to changes in regional climate. In this study, we take the Yangtze River basin as a case study and analyze the impacts of LULCC and reforestation on summer rainfall amounts and extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Firstly, two observed land use and cover scenarios (1990 and 2010) were chosen to investigate the impacts of LULCC on summer rainfall during the last decade. Secondly, two hypothetical reforestation scenarios (i.e., scenarios of 20 % and 50 % cropland changed to forest) were taken based on the control year of 2010 to test the sensitivity of summer rainfall (amounts and extremes) to reforestation. The results showed that average summer rainfall and extreme summer daily rainfall decreased in the Yangtze River basin between 1990 and 2010 due to LULCC. Reforestation could increase summer rainfall amount and extremes, and the effects were more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin. Moreover, the effects of reforestation were influenced by the reforestation proportion. In addition, the summer rainfall increased less conversely, with the transform proportion of cropland to forest increased from 20 % to 50 %. By analyzing the changes in water vapor mixing ratio, upward moisture flux, and 10 m wind, it is suggested that this result might be caused by the horizontal transportation processes of moisture. Although a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of LULCC on summer rainfall amounts and extremes was conducted, further studies are needed to investigate the uncertainty better.

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Impacts of land use change on thermodynamic and dynamic changes of precipitation for the Yangtze River Basin, China

Cited by 16 publications

References 67 publications

Impacts of Bias‐Corrected ERA5 Initial Snow Depth on Dynamical Downscaling Simulations for the Tibetan Plateau

Impacts of Bias‐Corrected ERA5 Initial Snow Depth on Dynamical Downscaling Simulations for the Tibetan Plateau

A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection

Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin

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