Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security

Abstract

In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided.

The Impact of Salt Stress on Plant Growth, Mineral Composition, and Antioxidant Activity in Tetragonia decumbens Mill.: An Underutilized Edible Halophyte in South Africa

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Multiscale analysis of factors affecting food security in China, 1980–2017

“…For its 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, the United Nations has ranked “ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture” second among 17 goals, highlighting the importance of food security (UN 2015 ). Yet, after decades of decline, the number of hungry people in the world has begun to rise in recent years (Molotoks et al 2021 ), which will likely make the UN’s goal difficult to achieve by 2030. In fact, the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated world hunger (Laborde et al 2020 ; Zurayk 2020 ).…”

A Retrospective Literature Evaluation of the Integration of Stress Physiology Indices, Animal Welfare and Climate Change Assessment of Livestock

“…As global population increases, and is expected to increase at an unprecedented rate over the next few decades, the animal industry must find new ways to ensure an uninterrupted quality food supply [ 24 ]. Outbreaks of production related diseases, such as Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease over the last two decades, have highlighted the gravity of good welfare management for the security of food safety, supply of disease-free farm animals [ 25 ].…”