Impacts of Large‐Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover

Lu, Zhengyao; Zhang, Qiong; Miller, Paul A.; Berntell, Ellen; Smith, Benjamin

doi:10.1029/2020gl090789

Cited by 39 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…When adjusting demand to 300 W /p ( 17 CCS 300W ), more excess power is available for CCS and thus draw-down can be completed already in 2053. In a 300 W /p society demand for storage can increase (∆t i = 0.02 a, i. e. one week, and φ d = 0.5) ( 18 CCS 300W high storage) while still staying below 1.5 Developing PV in deserts is challenging for many reasons [72][73][74], but still it cannot not fundamentally change the dynamics of the transition as it cannot be developed faster than PV on the built environment. In the following scenarios, PV in deserts is excluded.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 3-machines energy transition model: exploring the energy frontiers for restoring a habitable climate

Desing¹,

Gerber²,

Hischier³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration is on the rise, currently exceeding 420ppm. This is far above the 180ppm to 280ppm range of the past one million years and the anticipated safe limit of 350ppm. Consequently, halting fossil carbon emissions is necessary but insufficient to navigate to a safe climate future - massive and permanent removal of CO2 is inevitable. Humanity needs to do both: transit from the current fossil to a solar energy supply system and clean-up excess CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. The required global-scale transformation is ultimately limited by the availability of energy, beyond political ambitions and economic considerations. In this paper, the 3-machines energy transition model, a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, is presented and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. In 25 simulation experiments, shaped by a set of parameters regarding e.g. energy demand, energy storage and progression of the machines, the dynamics of the transformation and the effect on cumulative CO2 emissions were analysed. The resulting pathways reveal that, theoretically, atmospheric CO2 concentration can be reduced to 350ppm well before the end of this century while staying below 1.5°C with more than 50% probability. However, this requires the fastest possible energy transition, a massive and lasting carbon removal from atmosphere and hydrosphere, minimization of energy storage and a reduction of energy demand per capita.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 3-machines energy transition model: exploring the energy frontiers for restoring a habitable climate

Desing¹,

Gerber²,

Hischier³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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show abstract

“…In total, 72% of the area is available for constructing solar farms. The importance of land-cover on-site suitability analysis for PV farms is emphasized in the works of Guaita-Pradas et al ( 2019) and Lu et al (2021) who believe that large-scale solar farms could bene t the vegetation cover of rangelands with poor cover conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS application in identifying suitable areas for solar panel installation in Mashhad County of Iran

Dastorani

Shalamzari²

2022

Preprint

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Most areas of the Iran enjoy more than 300 days of good sunshine for photovoltaic energy production and the potential for wind energy production is also immense. In this paper we evaluated the suitability of Mashhad County in Iran for the installation of photovoltaic panels. Mashhad is a mega city with a growing population due to its religious importance and the travelling pilgrims coming to the city to visit the Holy Shrine each year. We evaluated the area based on several factors including including topographic features (slope gradient, slope direction and height), roads and infrastructure, built-up areas, environmentally protected areas, solar photovoltaic output potential, air temperature, land cover and active fault lines. Since most of the area is flat with minor elevations, there is no limitation for energy production. The largest share of the area has slope gradient of less than 15% (3303 km2), this factor also imposes no limitation. In terms of elevation also 42% (4335 km2) of the area below 2000m which is suitable for wind farm construction. There are some 72 active faults in the area. In total, 7.3% of the total area is covered with protected areas accounting for ~ 720 km2 which is not suitable for solar farms. In terms of land cover, 72% of the area is available for constructing solar farms. There is also no limitation in terms of air temperature and potential PV output. The final suitability map was obtained by combining these layers and then divided into five classes. Based on our results, the suitable class had the largest share of the final map. Highly suitable areas comprise 14.1% of the total area. The excluded lands from the analysis due to the limiting factors made up approximately 56% equal to 5811 km2. In total, Mashhad County is considerable potential for solar energy production.

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“…Moreover, other simulations with precession forcing find no SAPD, or a zonal precipitation dipole in the austral summer that is offset by opposing anomalies in the austral winter (Prado et al., 2013; Shimizu et al., 2020; Tigchelaar & Timmermann, 2016). One key limitation in the application of these models to the mid‐Holocene is they do not account for the greening‐induced decrease in Saharan land albedo—a major boundary condition change that has previously been linked to rainfall anomalies in tropical South America (Lu et al., 2021). If such zonal forcings can impact tropical South American rainfall, they may be critical for explaining the zonal patterns of the SAPD.…”

Section: Late Quaternary Speleothem δ18o Records and Precipitation Dy...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Kukla

Winnick

Laguë

et al. 2023

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Impacts of Large‐Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover

Cited by 39 publications

References 68 publications

The 3-machines energy transition model: exploring the energy frontiers for restoring a habitable climate

The 3-machines energy transition model: exploring the energy frontiers for restoring a habitable climate

GIS application in identifying suitable areas for solar panel installation in Mashhad County of Iran

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

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