Impacts of marine heatwaves may be mediated by seabird life history strategies

Woehler, Eric J.; Hobday, AJ

doi:10.3354/meps14333

Cited by 10 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 143 publications

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“…Gillnetting has been reported to occur near some little penguin colonies in Tasmania, and penguins have been found drowned in these nets; however, the potential impact on colonies is unknown (Crawford et al, 2017; Stevenson & Woehler, 2007). Climate change is also a threat to penguins (Coudert et al, 2019; Woehler & Hobday, 2023). South‐east Australia is a global warming hotspot (Hobday & Pecl, 2014), and little penguins may already be responding to climate change via their breeding phenology (Chambers et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating risks to seabirds on the urban–coastal interface: Modelling dog attacks on little penguin populations in Tasmania

Blamey,

Bulman,

Tuck

et al. 2024

Aquatic Conservation

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Tasmania (including offshore islands) has the largest breeding population of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) in Australia, but coastal development around nesting areas has led to habitat loss, often resulting in smaller, fragmented colonies. Colonies have also been subject to predation by introduced domestic species. This study assessed whether historical levels of domestic dog predation could threaten the viability of penguin populations. Data collected since the 1980s detailing little penguin kills by domestic dogs were used to inform the extent of individual mortality events. The potential impact of dog attacks on the viability of little penguin colonies of the sizes typically found on mainland Tasmania was explored using an age‐based population model. Simulation was conducted over decadal timescales to assess the impact of attacks at varying frequencies and intensities on small (100 birds), medium (300 birds) and large (500 birds) colonies that were stable, growing or decreasing. Results suggested that frequent and intense dog attacks markedly increased the probability of colony decline, regardless of colony size. Even large, growing penguin colonies were at risk of decline. The risk of extinction was <10% for medium and large stable colonies if no more than 15–25 penguins were killed per attack and there were no more than 20 attacks per 50 years. For small‐sized colonies, the risk of extinction was <10% if fewer than 10 attacks occurred per 50‐year period and no more than 15 birds were killed per attack. Importantly, results suggested that for small colonies especially, even low levels of predator attack could lead to colony collapse in 10–15 years. For large colonies that were already decreasing, the average time to extinction was markedly increased with additional mortalities from dogs, highlighting the need for ongoing management measures that reduce or eliminate dog attacks to help conserve this iconic species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating risks to seabirds on the urban–coastal interface: Modelling dog attacks on little penguin populations in Tasmania

Blamey,

Bulman,

Tuck

et al. 2024

Aquatic Conservation

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Divergent Population Trends of Two Sympatric Auk Species in the Rapidly Warming Gulf of Maine

Durham,

Saunders,

Diamond

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Rapidly warming global temperatures are having a widespread influence on wildlife communities across taxa, with southern‐edge populations often experiencing the greatest negative impacts. However, sympatric species may exhibit divergent demographic responses due to differences in life history strategies and niche separation. We used integrated population models to estimate abundance, survival, and productivity for Atlantic Puffins and Razorbills nesting at the southern edge of their breeding range in the rapidly warming Gulf of Maine. We then conducted transient life table response experiments to understand the relative importance of demographic parameters in driving population dynamics. We found that the Atlantic Puffin population remained relatively stable over the 22‐year study period, whereas the Razorbill population increased substantially. Estimates of mean survival and productivity were similar between the study species but were at the lower range of values reported in the literature across their range. Despite similar estimates of mean productivity, interannual variation in this demographic rate was much higher in Puffins than Razorbills. Overall, adult survival was found to be the primary driver of population dynamics for both species yet shows evidence of long‐term decline in Puffins. For Razorbills, we found similar evidence of long‐term decline in first‐year survival. Overall, our findings suggest that these sympatric species may be responding differently to shared environmental conditions. Given the observed long‐term decrease in Puffin adult survival, future monitoring and conservation efforts for this species should be focused outside the breeding season in critical overwintering areas and migratory locations where adult mortality is typically concentrated. Similarly, given the observed long‐term decline in Razorbill first‐year survival, additional monitoring and tracking of chicks is warranted for this species to understand where immature individuals are going after they fledge from the colony.

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Penguins coping with a changing ocean

Ainley,

Wilson

2024

Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences

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Impacts of marine heatwaves may be mediated by seabird life history strategies

Cited by 10 publications

References 143 publications

Evaluating risks to seabirds on the urban–coastal interface: Modelling dog attacks on little penguin populations in Tasmania

Evaluating risks to seabirds on the urban–coastal interface: Modelling dog attacks on little penguin populations in Tasmania

Divergent Population Trends of Two Sympatric Auk Species in the Rapidly Warming Gulf of Maine

Penguins coping with a changing ocean

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