Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy

Groth, Andreas; Dumas, Patrice; Ghil, Michael; Hallegatte, Stéphane

doi:10.1002/9781119157052.ch19

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…We applied singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to examine periodicity in evapotranspiration across a range of time scales (Groth & Ghil, 2015;Hassani, 2007;Mahecha et al, 2007;Vautard et al, 1992). SSA has advantages over Fourier and Wavelet analysis because it is a nonparametric method.…”

Section: Singular Spectrum Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

On the inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of ecosystem evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of an oak savanna and annual grassland subjected to booms and busts in rainfall

Baldocchi

Verfaillie

2020

Global Change Biology

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Whether annual evapotranspiration of native ecosystems is increasing or decreasing with time as CO2 concentrations are rising, the climate is warming and rainfall experiences booms and busts, remains an unanswered question in the field of global change biology. To answer this question, we measured evapotranspiration and carbon dioxide exchange over and under an oak savanna and over an annual grassland in the Mediterranean climate of California, USA, from 2001 through 2019 with the eddy covariance method; during this 19‐year period, CO2 rose 40 ppm, air temperature increased by 1°C and annual rainfall ranged between 133 and 890 mm/year. No temporal trend in evapotranspiration or water use efficiency was observed over this time duration. Many competing positive and negative feedbacks among stomatal sensitivity to carbon dioxide concentrations, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit, the impact of temperature on saturation vapor pressure and access to groundwater muted the response of evapotranspiration to its changing world when integrated to the ecosystem scale and annual time steps. At the intra‐annual time scale, we found that plants transmit information on soil moisture status through their influence on the vapor pressure deficit of the atmospheric boundary layer. The inter‐annual variations in evaporative water use by the savanna and annual grassland were relatively decoupled from the booms and busts in rainfall. Instead, variations in length of growing season and access to groundwater explained much of this year‐to‐year variation in annual evapotranspiration. The access of groundwater by the oak savanna may make these ecosystems more robust in a warmer world, than was previously thought. This is a scale emergent property that needs better consideration in coupled climate‐ecosystem models.

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Section: Singular Spectrum Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

On the inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of ecosystem evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of an oak savanna and annual grassland subjected to booms and busts in rainfall

Baldocchi

Verfaillie

2020

Global Change Biology

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“…In this study, we use univariate singular spectrum analysis as developed by Allen and Smith (1996), Groth and Ghil (2015), Vautard and Ghil (1989), Vautard et al (1992) Ghil et al (2001 to identify and isolate the dynamics in the financial cycles using short and noisy quarterly time series data for transitional economies from 2005 to 2018. First, we decompose variance in our series in eigenvalues λk and eigenvectors Ek, following the study of Vautard and Ghil (1989), Ghil et al (2001)…”

Section: Data and Research Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking financial cycles in ten transitional economies 2005?2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques

Škare

Porada-Rochoń

2019

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Research background: Financial cycles are behind many deep financial crises and it closely connects them with the business cycles, showing long memory properties and effects. Being closely connected with the business cycles, we must first explore the true nature of the financial cycles to understand the nature of the business cycles. Financial cycles are real, they have long memory properties and long-lasting effects on the economy. Purpose of the article: This study investigates the use of (SSA) in tracking and monitoring financial cycles focusing on ten (10) transitional economies 2005–2018. Methods: Singular spectrum analysis isolate significant oscillatory patterns (cycles) on housing markets with an average 4-years length. We isolate credit cycles just for Bulgaria, implying long memory properties of the cycles since this study investigated medium term (2–5 years) oscillations. Findings & Value added: The results prove the importance and advantages of using (SSA) in the study of financial cycles attempting to reveal the true nature of financial cycles as the principal component behind business cycles. Financial cycles show longer oscillations in the credit and property price series, which can explain 37.7%–49.9% of the variance of the total financial cycle fluctuations. Study results are of practical importance, particularly to policy-makers and practitioners in former transitional economies being vulnerable to adverse shocks on the financial markets. The results should assist policy-makers and financial practitioners in building and maintaining a sound financial policy needed to avoid future financial “bubbles”.

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“…8(c). Please see and Groth et al (2015a) for the precise definitions and equations used in the M-SSA methodology, and Groth et al (2015b) for the details of the statistical significance tests applied to the BEA dataset. Plaut and Vautard (1994) introduced the concept of local variance fraction V K (t),…”

Section: Appendix a Local Variance And The Fdtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Endogenous limit cycle behavior of NEDyM for an investment flexibility of αinv = 2.5; for all other parameter values please seeHallegatte et al (2008, Table 3). Reproduced fromGroth et al (2015a) with permission.…”

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confidence: 99%

Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

Ghil

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The scientific problems posed by the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere – along with the land surface and biota that interact with them – are central to major socio-economic and political concerns in the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. The point of a review paper published in this journal in 2001 was that one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: festina lente, i.e. hurry in a measured way. The earlier paper traced the necessary progress through the solutions of ten problems, starting with What can we predict beyond one week, for how long, and by what methods? and ending with Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? A unified framework was proposed to deal with these problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest time scale, i.e. from weeks to centuries and millennia. The framework is that of dynamical systems theory, with an emphasis on successive bifurcations and the ergodic theory of nonlinear systems, on the one hand, and on pursuing this approach across a hierarchy of climate models, from the simplest, highly idealized ones, to the most detailed ones. Here, we revisit some of these problems, 20 years later, and extend the framework to coupled climate-economics modeling.

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Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy

Cited by 20 publications

References 64 publications

On the inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of ecosystem evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of an oak savanna and annual grassland subjected to booms and busts in rainfall

On the inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of ecosystem evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of an oak savanna and annual grassland subjected to booms and busts in rainfall

Tracking financial cycles in ten transitional economies 2005?2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques

Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

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