Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds

Ficklin, Darren L.; Robeson, Scott M.; Knouft, Jason H.

doi:10.1002/2016gl069121

Cited by 118 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…These values compare well with modelled increases in average annual recharge in Grand River basin to the west of the study area in the order of 2.5 mm year −1 for 1960–1999 (Jyrkama & Sykes, ). They are also consistent with partial evidence of increasing trends in WY P and groundwater recharge along the ORM reported here, and Ficklin et al's () observation of good correspondence between temporal trends in BF and P at the national scale in the United States. Any increase in WY P in the ORM region has been partly countered by increasing PET , which is greatest in summer.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Buttle

2018

Hydrological Processes

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Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Buttle

2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…A finding of no significant trend is a common result among studies that use the Mann-Kendall test to identify trends among several sites [39,40], and is more common among precipitation than discharge [36]. This may be due to a break in classification.…”

Section: Trendsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…We chose to show trends at alpha values and not outside of those thresholds; as a result, we conclude a significant trend at α = 0.09 but not at 0.11. Some studies report the Z score calculated by the Mann-Kendall test [39,40], which describes the magnitude of the trend and is thus continuous from very strong trend to very little or no trend; but we focused on statistical significance rather than a graduated scale for a less nuanced classification. Additionally, our study uses easily obtained data over large areas-areas with a dry summer climate across the globe-and coverage over these areas is not comprehensive.…”

Section: Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research has indicated that climate and associated hydrologic processes (such as streamflow production) have already begun to change in some parts of the world, including significant downward trends in precipitation in parts of India [34] and New Zealand [35], as well as downward trends in dry-season streamflow and upward trends in peak streamflow in parts of the United States [36][37][38][39][40]. If temperate dry-summer climate zones are undergoing changes in climate variables-such as increased or decreased annual precipitation-these changes could already be causing shifts in ecological community composition and structure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World’s Mediterranean-Climate Areas

Deitch

Sapundjieff

Feirer³

2017

Water

102

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Abstract:The Mediterranean climate is principally characterized by warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. However, there are large variations in precipitation dynamics in regions with this climate type. We examined the variability of precipitation within and among Mediterranean-climate areas, and classified the Mediterranean climate as wet, moderate, or dry based on annual precipitation; and strongly, moderately, or weakly seasonal based on percentage of precipitation during summer. Mediterranean biomes are mostly dry (<700 mm annually) but some areas are wet (>1300 mm annually); and many areas are weakly seasonal (>12% of annual precipitation during summer). We also used NOAA NCDC climate records to characterize interannual variability of annual and dry-season precipitation, as well as trends in annual, winter, and dry-season precipitation for 337 sites that met the data quality criteria from 1975 to 2015. Most significantly, sites in many Mediterranean-climate regions show downward trends in annual precipitation (southern California, Spain, Australia, Chile, and Northern Italy); and most of North America, the Mediterranean basin, and Chile showed downward trends in summer precipitation. Variations in annual and summer precipitation likely contribute to the high biodiversity and endemism characteristic of Mediterranean-climate biomes; the data indicate trends toward harsher conditions over the past 40 years.

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“…Yusoff et al, 2002;Brabets and Walvoord, 2009;Huntington et al, 2009;Xie et al, 2010). Recently, Ficklin et al (2016) also showed that climate driven changes in baseflow in United States watersheds vary across the nation and seasons; except in the northeast where climate change contributed to consistent baseflow increase during fall and winter and decrease during all seasons in the southwest. In the Midwest and Great Plains regions, analysis of historical streamflow records revealed increasing trends in streamflow and baseflow due to the influence of climate (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual baseflow variations as influenced by climate variability and agricultural land use change in the Missouri River Basin

Ahiablame

Sheshukov

Rahmani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrology

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a b s t r a c tThe Missouri River system has a large water storage capacity, where baseflow plays an important role. Understanding historical baseflow characteristics with respect to climate and land use impacts is essential for effective planning and management of water resources in the Missouri River Basin (MORB). This study evaluated statistical trends in baseflow and precipitation for 99 MORB minimally disturbed watersheds during 1950-2014. Elasticity of baseflow to climate variability and agricultural land use change were quantified for the 99 studied watersheds. Baseflow was derived from daily streamflow records with a recursive digital filter method. The results showed that baseflow varied between 38 and 80% (0 and 331 mm/year) of total streamflow with an average of 60%, indicating that more than half of streamflow in the MORB is derived from baseflow. The trend analysis revealed that precipitation increased during the study period in 78 out of 99 watersheds, leading to 1-3.9% noticeable increase in baseflow for 68 of 99 watersheds. Although the changes in baseflow obtained in this study were a result of the combined effects of climate and land use change across the basin, upward trends in baseflow generally coincide with increased precipitation and agricultural land use trends in the basin. Agricultural land use increase mostly led to a 0-5.7% decrease in annual baseflow in the basin, except toward east of the basin where baseflow mostly increased with agricultural land use increase (0.1-2.0%). In general, a 1% increase in precipitation and a 1% increase in agricultural land use resulted in 1.5% increase and 0.2% decrease in baseflow, respectively, during the study period. These results are entirely dependent on the quality of data used; however, they provide useful insight into the relative influence of climate and land use change on baseflow conditions in the Great Plains region of the USA.

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Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds

Cited by 118 publications

References 61 publications

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World’s Mediterranean-Climate Areas

Annual baseflow variations as influenced by climate variability and agricultural land use change in the Missouri River Basin

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