Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Potato Yields at a Provincial Scale in Northwest China

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change on potato yield is vital for food security in northwest China. Based on the long-term data of yields and meteorology, this study analysed the impacts of recent climate change on potato yields at a provincial scale in northwest China. The first difference method was used to disentangle the contributions of climate change from the changes in potato yield in two consecutive years. The moving average method was used to decouple the climate-induced yield of potato. The results showed that the yield and planting area of potato from the period 1982 to 2015 increased markedly, with inter-annual fluctuations. The temperature increased significantly during the potato growing period in northwest China, while other climatic factors did not change significantly. Specifically, the changing trends in climatic factors varied among different provinces. The key meteorological factors limiting potato yield were temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range, varying in the different provinces. Potato yields in Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Xinjiang decreased by 127, 289, 199 and 339 kg ha−1, respectively, for every 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperature. The potato yield in Xinjiang decreased by 583 kg ha−1 for every 1 °C increase in daily minimum temperature. For every 100 mm increase in precipitation, the potato yields in Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia increased by 250, 375 and 182 kg ha−1, respectively. Combining the first difference method and the moving average method, precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting potato yield in rain-fed areas (Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia). For areas with irrigation (Xinjiang) or relatively high rainfall (Shaanxi), maximum temperature was the deciding climatic factor affecting potato yield. Appropriate adaptation to climate change in the different regions will help to ensure potato production in northwest China.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach

“…This study also found that, in every crop year, potato cultivated areas increased in Bangladesh [42,54]. Similar findings were also observed by Li and Zhang, who found that climatic factors variously affect different potato producing provinces in China [55]. The elasticity of the lagged year's farm price was 0.04-0.12, indicating that potato prices played a significant role in deciding the allocation of lands and that they had a positive and statistically associated effect on potato producer behavior.…”

“…The continuing effects of climate change on potato production are assumed to become more complicated and uncertain. Due to data availability, this study did not assess fertilizer effects, CO 2 concentrations, and severe climatic events that negatively affect potato yields [55,77,78]. Further detailed and comprehensive assessments are needed for future studies along with assessment of the development of crop cultivars and producers' behavior.…”

Measuring the impact of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial-temporal modeling

“…In northern China, the potato yield was most susceptible to changes in the diurnal temperature range, followed by radiation, precipitation, and evapotranspiration [ 17 ], late potato development was sensitive to the optimum temperature setting in northern Europe [ 18 ], and spatial variability impacts potato production [ 19 ]. The maximum temperature, comparatively heavy rain, and irrigation all had an effect on the yield of potatoes in China [ 20 ].…”

​Factors Affect to Stolon Formation and Tuberization in Potato: A Review

“…By increasing temperature in stolons and roots is caused to promote early senesce of plants (Menzel, 1983;Menzel, 1985;Struik et al, 1989;Prange et al, 1990;Lafta and Lorenzen, 1995). Li and Zhang (2020) proved that potato yield was decreased by 583 kg ha -1 for every increment of temperature by 1  C in china. According to Dam et al (1996), tuber formation is delayed under higher temperatures on long days.…”

“…Wang et al (2013) observed that mulch with trickle irrigation is secured more tubers under water deficit conditions. Li and Zhang (2020) revealed that potato yield was increased with every 100 mm increasing of precipitation in the rainfed area of China. According to Jama-Rodzenska et al (2020), stolons' weights were higher in cv.…”