Impacts of rising water demands in the Juba and Shabelle river basins on water availability in south Somalia

Abstract

Somalia has frequently been affected by droughts, famines and water-related humanitarian crises. Water is scarce and the only perennial streams, the Juba and Shabelle rivers, are trans-boundary with river flows mainly originating from the Ethiopian highlands. In both riparian countries water demands are projected to increase. This paper reveals the impact of rising regional water abstractions on stream flows by illustrating sectoral demands and joining them into scenarios of medium and high population and economic growth. These scenarios are associated to the time horizons of 2035 and 2055, respectively. The scenarios disclose alarming trends especially for the Shabelle River: in the medium and high growth scenarios, water demands surpass the available river flows by 200 and 3500 hm 3 , respectively. The calculated deficits partly derive from conflicting assumptions about river flows by the two main riparian countries, an obstacle to any integrated planning efforts and sustained regional development.

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“…This will very likely have led to some population declines in that area. There is also considerable pressure on the water resources of the Shebelle both in Ethiopia and Somalia, with future water demands projected to increase markedly (Michalscheck et al 2016). These long-term changes to water levels may impact the vegetation of the surrounding catchment.…”

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“…Moreover, there are a number of seasonal rivers, which flow only during the rainy season, and after heavy storms the flow is often accompanied by flash floods. The Juba and Shabelle rivers have two peak flows during the rainy seasons, which occur in October and September respectively (Michalscheck et al, 2015 ).…”

“…Water demand is divided into three main sectors: (1) domestic demand that was estimated at 20 Litres per Capita per Day (Lpcpd) in rural areas and 50 Lpcpdin urban areas (Sebhat, 2015 ), which represents 0.2 Million Cubic Meter (MCM). ; Agriculture demand represents 98% of the total demand (FAO); and (3) Livestock demand: Water demand for cattle, sheep/goats and camels were assumed as 25, 1.6 and 12 L per head per day (l/h/d) (Michalscheck et al, 2015 ). According to the Somalia Livestock Sector Development Strategy (LSDS), Somalia has 6,647,164, 5,530,921, 12,983,154 and 30,516,421 camel, cattle, sheep and goat, respectively.…”

“…The civil war destroyed the water systems and posed many challenges for its development to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (Jama & Mourad, 2019 ). Moreover, the upstream developments in Ethiopia have affected water availability and irrigation practices in Somalia (Michalscheck et al, 2015 ). These challenges cover many areas, as described above, starting from climatic threats (floods and droughts) ending with small water management issues such as the access of livestock to the same water points that humans use, which has increased health vulnerabilities in many rural areas.…”

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“…It joins the Juba River at Dolo, where it then becomes the Somalia-Ethiopia border (Basnyat and Gadain 2009;Woldemariyam and Ayenew 2016a;Woldemariyam and Ayenew 2016b). Although much of the flow from Kenya into Somalia is in the subsurface Merti aquifer system (GIBB 2004;Oord et al 2014), a seasonal tributary known as the Lagh Dera also joins the Juba river in Somalia (Michalscheck et al 2016).…”