Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia

Asuncion, Ruben Carlo; Lee, Minsoo

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2982817

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The current accelerated SLR is expected to have a slow, potentially governing impact on the future state of estuarine systems. Examples are shoreline erosion (Passeri et al, ), loss of salt marshes, and coastal wetlands along with their associated habitats (Nicholls & Cazenave, ; Sampath et al, ; Thorne et al, ), coastal squeeze and increased inundation and flooding (Pelling & Blackburn, ), decline of intertidal area (Rossington & Spearman, ; van der Wegen et al, ), and economic losses due to disruption of economic activities or land loss (Asuncion & Lee, ; Peri & Šverko, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

et al. 2019

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Anticipated sea level rise (SLR) threatens intertidal areas and associated ecosystems in estuaries worldwide. There is a need to develop validated modeling tools to assess the impact of SLR on estuarine morphodynamics. This study explores the morphological impact of SLR on a channel-shoal system in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of San Francisco Bay, California, using a 3-D, process-based modeling approach (Delft3D) including density currents and wave action. The Bay underwent considerable morphologic development in response to variations in fluvial sediment load and discharge associated with a period of hydraulic mining for gold and later damming in the watershed. The availability of a unique 150-year, 30-year sequenced, bathymetric data set provided a rare opportunity for model validation. We investigate a 250-year period of morphodynamic evolution including a 150-year hindcast and a 100-year forecast with different SLR scenarios. The model shows significant skill in hindcasting volumes and patterns of bathymetric development during both net depositional and erosional (1951-onward) periods. Forecasts show that SLR alters the Bay's erosional trend to a depositional trend again. Despite increased sediment trapping rates, the intertidal mudflats drown under all modeled SLR scenarios (42, 84, and 167 cm by end of the 21st century). Our work highlights the potential of using process-based models to assess the morphodynamic impact of SLR. The study also suggests that SLR can greatly increase the loss of intertidal area when landward migration is not possible. Sustainable management strategies are required to safeguard these valuable intertidal habitats.Plain Language Summary Sea level rise is expected to affect coastal areas all around the world including the estuarine environment. In particular, the estuarine intertidal area comprises delicate and valuable ecosystems. Anticipated sea level rise poses questions on the fate of this unique estuarine environment. In this research, we aim to validate a numerical model against observed bed level developments in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of San Francisco Estuary, to make trustworthy predictions of the estuarine bed including future sea level rise. The model included detailed tidal water movement, wind-wave action, sediment transports, and resulting bed level updates. Our hindcast (1856-1983) showed significant skill in reproducing observed bed level developments. Our forecast shows that sea level rise slowly drowns the intertidal environment. The sea level rise rate is larger than the accretion rate of the mudflats. Mitigation and adaptation strategies are required to ensure the sustainability of the estuarine environment against climate-induced changes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

et al. 2019

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“…This research result is not sufficient evidence to conclude that sea level rise affects economic growth in ASEAN countries, consistent with the findings of Nováčková & Tol (2018), which suggest no significant stable impact of sea level rise on economic growth. In contrast, studies by Hallegatte (2012) and Asuncion & Lee (2017) emphasize the significant economic impacts of sea level rise, including land and infrastructure loss, increased costs from extreme events, and the need for coastal protection. Desmet et al (2021) discussed the economic impact of coastal flooding due to sea level rise, estimating that under the intermediate greenhouse gas concentration pathway, global GDP would decrease by an average of 0.19% in current value terms, with welfare reduced by 0.24%.…”

Section: (3) Impact Of Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 98%

The impact of climate change on economic growth: A study of ASEAN countries

Nga,

Tien,

Cuong

2024

JFM

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Climate change is an urgent and worldwide concern that presents substantial risks to a range of industries, such as agriculture, water resources, and economic growth. The purpose of this research is to assess how climate change has affected the economic expansion of ASEAN nations. Land pollution, sea level rise, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are utilized to quantify climate change. Empirically investigating this issue, the Fixed Effects Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method is utilized in conjunction with panel data spanning the years 1990 to 2018. The findings from the FGLS model estimation suggest that climate change exerts a varied influence on the economic growth of ASEAN member states. More precisely, total pesticide use in agriculture has a positive impact on economic development, whereas CO2 emissions have a detrimental effect. Moreover, economic growth is positively impacted by foreign direct investment, trade openness, and institutional stability. To stimulate economic expansion and bolster growth drivers, ASEAN nations must adopt more robust measures to deal with climate change.

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“…The different results reported in these two studies are due to the differences in scenarios. Asuncion and Lee [85] examine the impact caused by the sea level rise in developing Asian and Pacific countries. They conclude that the economic consequences will be between 1.7% (Nauru) and 7.6% (Marshall Islands) of the GDP in 2050.…”

Section: Background Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of a Revenue-Neutral Child Subsidy Tax Mechanism on Growth and GHG Emissions

Kumar

Stauvermann

2019

Sustainability

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Growing population, greenhouse gas emissions, and the pressure to improve economic growth are conflicting and controversial issues at the core of political economy. In this paper, using a theoretical model, we show that by shifting relative costs of child-rearing and costs for education, we can achieve a slowdown in population growth and greenhouse emissions, and an enhancement of economic growth. These goals are based on two fundamental considerations—the quantity–quality tradeoff with respect to the choice of the number, and the educational level of children. An analysis is presented using a standard overlapping generation (OLG) framework that is extended with human capital, endogenous fertility, and changing life expectancy. The environmental impact of economic activities is modeled using a modified IPAT framework. Our results show that it is possible to reduce the level of carbon emissions of the whole economy and to generate a Pareto improvement. Subsequently, an economic strategy is presented that is costless, has various advantages, and particularly useful for countries experiencing high fertility rate that are not sustainable.

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Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia

Cited by 9 publications

References 41 publications

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

The impact of climate change on economic growth: A study of ASEAN countries

The Effects of a Revenue-Neutral Child Subsidy Tax Mechanism on Growth and GHG Emissions

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